Wednesday, October 14, 2020

The Numbers Game

 This is a little Covid piece which only comes up now....because of the increased numbers in the past two weeks, which is worrying the German leadership in a great fashion.

So, if you were feeling just slightly sick....maybe two of the normal Covid-19 symptoms...you might go (as a German) and call up your clinic doctor.  He'd ask a couple of questions, and say 'fine', then issue a digital slip to go over to the county/district center to be tested.

The test is done, and lets say that it come back 24 hours later....'positive'.  Is that the end of the discussion and you go onto home or hospital quarantine?  Well....no.  You could be unconvinced and quiz the doctor on the result.  Maybe out of the ten possible symptoms....you only have two minor symptoms.  

The German doctor has the authority to issue a second slip, and get you tested a second time. You go back, get tested again, and 24 hours later....get told a second time....yep, you are positive.

So, when the slide flips up for Monday night's national news, and 4,088 new infections are discussed....worrying the hell out of national and state leaders....is that the end of the situation?

No, the slide for Wednesday night's news will flip up and show 4,322 new infections....worrying folks to a great extent.  But in that slide....one of those new infections...is really an old infection which should have only been noted for Monday night's results. 

Being counted twice?  Yeah.

How often does this happen?  Unknown.  Nor do I think that anyone really wants to open up this discussion or engage upon the idea that 1-percent or 3-percent of the numbers are just duplicates.

It's like asking how many times that President Trump and his wife have been tested.  It might add up to six times each....with five positive, and one negative.  

Is this even worth discussing?  No.  But it demonstrates that the numbers game is not always 100-percent correct.  

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