Politics Story

 Back in the fall of 2018....Chancellor Merkel stepped down as the 'boss' (Party Chief) of the CDU Party.  In essence, she held two jobs....Chancellor, and the head of her own political party.

So the idea here was to step down....bring in a new face, and the person would very likely be the Chancellor candidate in the fall of 2021 (national election time).

The person brought in?  

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (often referred to as 'AKK'). 

A known figure in the Berlin scene?  No.  She was the Premier-President in the Saarland.  Qualified?  In every possible way....she was a carbon-copy of Merkel.  Intellectual....not all chatty....very centralist in her views.

Party membership happy with her?  I would suggest that half of the party (the pro-Merkel enthusiast)....very happy.  The other half of the party....they basically wanted a new right-of-center type of individual and a non-intellectual.

For about 7 months, things went OK with AKK....then the Defense Minister got offered the EU Presidency and she left.  Merkel?  She then wants to appoint AKK as Defense Minister.....as a second job....keeping the party 'boss' job.

My own impression is that AKK wasn't that happy holding two jobs.   But she accepted on 17 Jul 2019.

Somewhere in the spring of 2020....AKK then said 'enough'....this whole mess wasn't her thing.  She would hold the Defense Minister job, but would put the party 'boss' job up at the end of 2020....at the CDU Party meeting.  There would be a new chief picked, and so she wasn't going to be the Chancellor candidate.  

The dynamics changed overnight.

Three guys came out....wanting the party boss job.  The NRW Premier-President (Laschet) was one of the three.  You would say that he was an intellectual type....not widely liked across Germany, and didn't have a lot of appeal in public situations.  

The second guy was Rottgen....who'd I describe as the intellectual of intellectuals, but not exactly a widely known figure.  Both Laschet and Rottgen would be accepted by the pro-Merkel crowd, and by the Chancellor herself.

Then there's the third guy.....Merz.  He's not the intellectual type and back around a dozen years ago....got on the 'bad-boy' list of Merkel's.  He left politics and got back into business.  He's returned in the past two years, and publicly.....he's highly liked.  Centralist-view?  NO.  

Poll-wise?  Somewhere between 50 and 60 percent of the CDU (recently polled by RTL) prefer Merz.  I would imagine that AKK and Merkel both have a dismal view of the guy.

This meeting in early December would have wrapped up the mess.  Merz would have been voted into the party boss job, and be the Chancellor candidate.

Added to this.....the Premier-President of Bavaria....Soder....is NOT in the running for the party boss job, but he wants to be the Chancellor candidate, and in recent months....virtually every chance Merkel has had to put him out in front of the crowd....she'd done that.

Well...in the last day or two....the December party meeting has been discussed, and it's probably going to be cancelled (Covid-19 worries).  1,000 members would have been there.

Merz?  He's massively angry.

The next meeting where he might be elected to the party boss job?  It won't be until March or April....my humble opinion,

The 'chess-board' being arranged for Merkel to get another figure into the party boss job?  I would suggest that a 4th name would show up shortly (Health Minister Jens Spahn).  

Party anger building up?  It's obvious that conference meeting is being fixed to benefit someone.  Hurting Merz and his odds?  More than likely.  

A theatrical situation?  More or less.  All of this could hurt the CDU odds in the fall of 2021 and allow Habeck (the Green Party) to win enough votes, becoming Chancellor.  Something that Merkel supports?  I doubt that she'll admit that....but this whole thing is managed to produce something of a surprise.