Tax Story

 Early this AM, N-TV business news had this one brief item....chatter over a 'wealth-tax' by the SPD, Greens and Linke Party.

I won't go into a lot of talk about this.....but there is some possibility that the three political parties in question will form a coalition after the 26 Sep election, and this wealth-tax discussion will come around to be a major issue.

A Munich research group sat and viewed the evidence and trends.  So what they said....via N-TV's piece....a wealth-tax will bring some short-term revenue in to pay off Covid-debt (it does exist).  But long-term....it'd slow the German economy down (this current recession would last longer).

Odds of this Green-SPD-Linke coalition?  Presently, I'd give it less than a 30-percent chance (the Linke is marginally at 6-percent, and the Greens are hovering around 18-percent).  If you asked most Germans about their feeling for this type of coalition.....a vast majority (greater than half) would be against this type of situation.

As for the wealth-tax idea?  If you went after their money and they moved/left....then how do you resolve the pit that you've dug yourself into....requiring more money to make up for the losses?  The Sweden experience of the 1960s is often recited on how companies and the ultra-rich simply packed up and left.  

Politics and Hookers

 It's a small story that won't get much attraction.

A German female focus group is now pushing for a total ban on prostitution in Germany.

All the way up until the Covid-era....prostitution was legal but heavily 'managed' (meaning you operated only where the city gave you permission, and reported income as tax rules required).  

Last year, virtually in every single urbanized area....prostitution got shutdown because of the Covid threat.  Well....legal prostitution got shutdown.  Illegal prostitution continued (cops would accidentally discover isolated cases).

So ARD (public TV) reported over the weekend on this new focus....permanent elimination.  This CDU-party group believes now is the time to press for a permanent shut-down.

What'll happen?  You'd have to go into a coalition meeting (other political parties) and get an agreement.  I don't see the Greens or SPD folks being open to the idea.

Then you'd have the sixteen states which would likely say it's not a federal power or position....it's a state or city management thing.

Even if you got that far, with the sixteen states agreeing.....the whole system would flip from being legit, to being run from private 'underground' clubs.

Lets be honest on this....on the list of 1,000 things that need to be fixed.....99-percent of Germans won't put this problem on the 'fix-list'.  

So it's just political chatter?  More or less.  

The Problem With Zero Risk

 Around a month ago....walking around the shopping district of Wiesbaden....I sat on a bench and ate an ice cream.  

Around this fifteen minute period, I sat and viewed the landscape.  I came to this view of some the past eighteen months of Covid, the stress upon society, the ban-rules, the curfew business, and the expectation that came with zero risk.  

As a kid growing up on a farm, you came to realize risk, the many potential ways that you can screw up thus triggering enormous risk, or take one simple action to cut the majority of risk.  

There are people around today, both in the US and Germany....who believe there is a level of zero-risk in everything we do.  The truth is....nothing holds zero-risk.  Risk kinda starts at 'one' and goes up to 'one-hundred'.  Nothing is zero.

The assignment of masks being required?  The idea is that masks lessen risk.  Getting a number to say for a no-mask situation versus a mask-situation?  Most nurses will say your risks are lessen but they don't go and hype up a zero-risk return on the mask deal.

The assignment of mandating speed-limits (getting autobahn speeds assigned)?  The suggestion is that risks are lessen, but they don't go to hype up a zero-risk situation (not unless you said top speed was 1 kph).

So people persist with the imagination and dream that you can reach some level of zero-risk.  I guess some folks will take this onto the level of trying extra-hard to avoid public toilets where some moment of weakness exposes you to a virus situation.  The same is true for people wearing rubber gloves of some type as they pick up a shopping cart to use in the grocery.  The heart rate increase now for people riding a city bus for nine minutes to reach some doctor's office and constant worry over a person's cough or the sweat on their forehead.  

It's silly in some ways, but we are a different society than we were three years ago.  

Three Revolving Assumptions of Covid in Germany

First, it's generally regarded that if you vaccinated.....you are 'protected' from Covid.  You will perhaps get Covid (still), but it won't be bad Covid.  You might still end up in the hospital (while vaccinated) but it won't be serious Covid.  You might still come close to death but will survive.

If this assumption falters or has evidence proven to be false, then the trust factor declines.  

Second, cutting off bar, pub, nightclub and restaurant access to the non-vax crowd is generally supported (at least politically).  

There are two issues with this though.  If you suddenly have a rise in vax-people hanging out at bars and restaurants....getting Covid, then the question will rise over how this is possible.  The other issue, if you decrease the customer base by 20 to 30 percent....can bars, pubs and restaurants survive economically?  

Finally to the third assumption.  One of the big discussion items revolves around ICU use, and the general assumption that only non-vax people will be in these beds, and you can scare the remaining non-vax people into some belief.  If this assumption fails and it's like a 50-50 situation between vax-people and non-vax people in the ICUs.....public sentiment will get shaky.  

What I see over the next month or two....after the free-testing business ends (early October)?  Various people will have some normal cold or allergy situation develop, and co-workers/friends/family members freak out and demand they test (meaning they pay for the test or call the doctor to get a potential test out of the health insurance deal).  If you thought that the fall period of 2020 was a hectic chaos.....just wait for the 2021 period to fall into play.

Political Chatter

 This Sunday night (29th), RTL TV (commercial German TV network) will present the top three Chancellor candidates (Laschet-CDU, Baerbock-Greens and Scholz-SPD). Live situation.

Somewhere between this point and the 26th of September, I expect one more 3-some meeting....at public TV (either ARD or ZDF).

Some people think this Sunday night meeting will shift a number of folks around.....this might be the point where the Greens lose another two points, and that Laschet drops below the 20-percent point.

The fact that the FDP, AfD, and Linke Party aren't in the mix?  Yeah, you could say that this isn't a fair situation.  

RTL possibly getting more viewership?  Well....I'm not going to say that it helps much.  You might get more youthful viewers in watching this episode (starts at 8:15 PM).

The key thing is whether RTL allows regular people explain a problem/mess, and allow them to ask a direct question to the three.  If this is a part of the show.....I might suggest none of the three fare well in this format.  Would they go the US-format and have questions already handed out?  No.....that's probably not going to happen, and it'll be a more difficult debate to walk into.  

I would add that RTL allowed Baerbock a moment in the past two weeks....to step in front of a small audience group and answer their questions.  She did a marginal job in that situation, and probably lost a point over the next polling period.  

Your Average Pizza Delivery Guy

 Roughly a year ago (more or less)....the Minister of Afghanistan's Communications and Technology Agency resigned, packed his bags, and left the country.....resettling in Germany.

This came up as a side note of something I was looking up.  

The guy in question....is fairly educated (two masters degrees, electronic engineering and communications).  I should note as well....these were not local degrees....they were from Oxford, UK.

Chief reason in leaving?  What is generally said....he had a disagreement with the President of the country.  

What does he do in Germany today?  

Well....deliver pizzas, in Leipzig.  I'm guessing here that he's in some German language class at the present time, and angling for consulting jobs as time goes by.  

Electricity Going Up

 I noticed a brief business note yesterday via the news.  If you went back to early 2020....electrical cost was (per 1 kilowatt hour) was around 28.75 Euro cents. 

Currently?  It's hitting 30 to 30.4 cents.  

So the guy went to the obvious issue....over a 20-year period....electricity has doubled in Germany. 

If you looked toward 2041?  It'll double again (probably to 60 to 65 Euro cents).

Covid Incident

 There's an odd incident that occurred this past week in Brandenburg, Germany.  There's a full-scale water-park there (inside deal) which had various rules in place to handle folks and ensure they were 'safe'.

Well....as Focus told the story this morning....the park had to send out 1,500 text warnings.  There apparently was a family of five who visited for a period of five days.  As they left, they had some symptoms....tested, and yeah.....they have Covid.

You can assume a lot here, but it might have been just a chance encounter at some autobahn gas station while driving to the water-park, and it passed from one-carrier to a member of the family.  

I would imagine for the next day or two....the 1,500 folks are probably going to take precautionary tests (probably multiple times) to satisfy their worry.  

This to trigger rule changes?  It wouldn't surprise me if parks like this get a new rule invented.  

Investigations Story

 Around a year ago in Germany, the government signed up to provide 'quickie-tests' for Covid.  Test centers opened up, and the deal was.....a private organization would run these (not the government), and the government would reimburse at a rate of 18 Euro per test.  

Yeah, the actual cost of the test kit was around 4 to 5 Euro at the time, and since spring....it's down to about 3 Euro each.....so there was a profit of 15 Euro....more or less.

So I noticed this yesterday off ARD news (public TV, Channel One).  

The German government now has around 94 separate investigations going on, with centers that turned in paperwork, but were conducting fake tests.  The government also admits that the real number will go higher than 94...because of ongoing efforts.

Connected to crime gangs/clans?  No.  Maybe they thought this in the beginning, but as the days pass....it's obvious that it was a local thing and just regular people seeing an opportunity to make extra 'loot'.

How many man-hours will be wasted by the police and prosecutor folks?  Oh, this will turn into hundreds of thousands of man-hours in the end, with some folks likely going off to prison for fraudulent behavior.

Was this all predictable?  This is the biggest part of the story.  There wasn't a lot of effort to manage this and it was thrown together in a hectic way.  

You can imagine the guy running a test center, and realizing that he could add sixteen fake test subjects a day, and add 160 Euro per day to his profit margin.  

Afghanistan-Germany News

 This morning, Focus brought up this Green Party discussion that is underway and heavily critical of the Merkel coalition (CDU-CSU-SPD).

The point?

Well....the Greens hint that the Merkel crew is all crapped-out about the evacuation plans that are being discussed as the US military airlift ends in Kabul.

The two issues mentioned?  

Well....there is some belief that  the Kabul airport is in serious condition (suggesting unusable for civil airliners). 

On this suggestion....on a scale of one to ten for truthfulness....I'd give it a 'two' at best.  No explosions or damage at the airport.  All the way up until two weeks ago (before the mess started).....this was a regular functional airport.  

Turkish Airways?  It stills runs a flight in.....though it might be extra expensive for seats (roughly 500 Euro).  

The control of the airport?  That might be an issue but you won't know until the Americans leave.....who is actually running the airport.

As for the second topic?  Travel documents.

So far, the Taliban has said that Afghans can't leave (for some reason, they don't want a full-up country with no population).   

What the Taliban said was that people with 'valid' documents can leave.....suggesting the stranded Germans or Americans....could board a plane and just fly out.

The Afghans showing up with 'valid' documents?  That's not very clear at this point if the Taliban will accept that 'game'.

What I expect to happen?  The Taliban will confront the EU and the US....wanting the cash reserves of the country released, and they'd agree to some number (probably not more than 1,000 a week) to be allowed travel-exit papers from the country.

What will eventually transpire under this under-the-table game.....the thousand a week will leave, and through bribes to certain Taliban members....another thousand will have duplicate exit papers made, and exit as well.  

The Greens may have marginal valid points, but this is not exactly a big point with the German public at this point.....four weeks prior to the election.  There are plenty of bigger issues on the minds of regular working-class Germans. 

Blimp Story

 Yesterday, the German Army (Bundeswehr) awarded a 21-million Euro contract to Rheinmetall.  Militaryleaks covered the basic story and is worth a read.

So the package deal?  Rheinmetall has been working on a surveillance 'blimp/balloon'.  

The way it'd work?  

You'd have a decent-sized blimp attached to a tether (cable) and from the station...it'd be released (still hanging onto the station) and rise up.  No one is clear about how far up, but I would take a reasonable guess of 10,000 feet.  Onboard, you'd have various cameras/sensors, and they'd relay a broadcast back down to the station.  There, you'd need at least three people (my guess) to view this on a 24-hour basis.  

With the right type of cameras, you'd probably get a good view of ten kilometers (minimum) in any direction around the station.  

So what the Bundeswehr intends to use it for?  Deployment in Niger, and it'd give them advanced warning of any approaching hostile forces.  

For the cost, and the return factor....I'd say it's a good investment and might prove itself in various ways.  In a high-traffic area like Europe?  It'd never be used because of flight dangers.  But in low-traffic areas like Africa?  Perfect location.    

Cookie Recall

 I was looking at business news this morning.....of ARD (public TV) and this item got my curiosity.  

So, LIDL is this grocery operation in Germany, and I tend to give them pretty high marks on service and products.  

Recently, they put a new item on the shelf.  It was a hemp-product 'cookie'.  So there's been some investigation done (no one is saying LIDL did it or some university group, or the police).  

LIDL removed the item from the shelves yesterday.  Reasoning?  They say this company (called 'Mary and Juana', from Czech) is making a cookie with too high of THC.  This was suggested to trigger "mood swings" and listless behavior.  Yeah....kinda like you smoked a really good joint of marijuana. 

LIDL was even nice enough to offer full pay-back, if you returned the cookies to them (even without a receipt).

I checked....Amazon.de still has the chocolate product up for sale (5.90 Euro).

I also checked a couple of Czech on-line shops....they market the cookies, the chocolate, and the muffins.  You can order the product and get it through your German post services.  

If you ask me....LIDL's action probably helped to pump up sales and the Czech folks are very appreciative of the 'campaign'.  

To get dopey or high off the chocolate?  I'm just guessing but you'd probably have to chump through five or six bars to get to a basic stage of dopiness. That's probably three times the cost factor of a normal regular joint (at Amsterdam prices).

Interview Chatter

 Focus put it up as a sort of front-page news item, and it's worth a moment of reading over.

The chief of Pfizer said in a interview that things will eventually reach a stage where Covid vaccine-resistant virus will develop.  He avoided saying a timeline and to be honest....it might be a number of years before we reach this stage.

But it will settle into your mind.....the day will come and we repeat all of 2020 over, with shutdowns, and closures.....because the vaccine folks need eight to ten months to develop and produce the 'juice'. 

A big deal?  No....you should just keep this in the back of your mind....things tend to repeat themselves.  

Power Issues

 There's an excellent reading piece over at Focus today, which I'd strongly recommend.  The hype?  Well....some folks have analyzed the energy business, nuke-plant shutdowns coming, the renewable energy plans, and finally said that as the nuke-plants shutdown in 2022....there's not adequate energy produced in Germany to make up for the loss.

Germany will consume more power, than it can make.

There was a trend-line existing back in the 2015-to-2017 era, which showed wind-generated energy going up.  The government went and halted a tax-credit deal at the time, and that trend-line...stalled in 2018 (it's mostly flat for new generators being installed today).

So what'll happen?  It's best not to bring this up with German associates or friends....but their power bill is going to increase.  As they talk to the French, Poles or whoever....the cost will go up as their 'dirty-energy' is sold to the Germans....which make the environmental folks real happy. 

Is any of this really a shock?  No.  You could find various people talking about this three years ago, and the government just stood there (like a deer in the headlights moment).  My best guess is that the new government that follows after Merkel.....will hold a meeting and discuss an emergency situation.  My humble guess....they will try to convince the nuke-plant operators to continue for two additional years, and the business folks will say 'fine' but ask for a fee-deal (probably over half-a-billion Euro) for this service charge.  Meanwhile, the politicians will then go and create a new tax credit for the wind-generator folks....giving them at least a billion Euro in credit over 2022 and 2023....to pump up new installations.  

Germans can be bitter about this whole incompetence game and poor judgement calls.....but they kept getting hyped-up and worried over coal-energy and nuke-energy.  

Political Chatter

 Last night, via RTL (commercial German TV), around 10:35 PM.....they ran a political chat show on Annalena Baerbock (Green Party Chancellor candidate).  Live show, moderated by RTL's Peter Kloppel.  

It was a bit different from a normal show.....they had six people who asked the majority of questions.

So this one older retiree gal came to ask how all this climate-neutral taxation was going to be handled by her.....when she already had very limited budget.  Baerbock couldn't answer it.

This is one of the severe weak points of the Green Party....when their agenda and future plans are laid out....it doesn't matter what you drive, or how you shop, or the food you eat....most everything will go up in cost.

At the conclusion of this show....the moderator asked the six who had changed their minds over Baerbock, and vote for the Greens.  No one raised their hand.

At some point, Baerbock did try to explain that the key parts of taxation would be passed to the wealthy.....but then one of the six offered up the opinion 'no, they don't accept taxes....they typically leave the country instead'.  

It was about sixty minutes of chatter (because of commercials added), and I'd generally say that Baerbock did adhere to the party program, but selling a poorly designed agenda just didn't work for regular working-class people.  If they had brought on 16 to 20 year old 'kids'?  Well....they probably would have bought the whole thing.

This being on at 10:30 at night?  That probably ensured a smaller audience and kept this from being a serious negative for the campaign.  If you view trend polling, the Greens have fallen a good bit over the past four months.  Part of it is Baerbock herself....part is comprehension now of the Green Party program (it doesn't even sell well to SPD-type voters).  

A Look Back: Wiesbaden Hauptbahnhof

 This is part of a series over sites around Wiesbaden that Air Force/Army folks may have frequented in the 1970s, 1980s.  Today's topic?  The Wiesbaden Train Station or Haupbahnhof.

From the outside.....nothing much has changed other than glass bus-stops being added.  

On the interior?  McDonalds, KFC, Subway and Dunkin-Donuts are now part of the food offerings.  The newspaper shop did move from one side to another side. 

Bars to drink a brew?  There's just one place left in the station for that.

The Bahn shop to arrange travels?  Still there.  Machines to buy your tickets?  Still there.  But you can download an app and buy your local tickets or long-distance trips just as well.  

A safe place?  I'd generally say it's still 99-percent safe except for pick-pockets or doped-up folks in the evening hours.

Incidence Rate Formula Going Away

 Yesterday (Tuesday), a draft copy of the new Covid 'standard' got public attention.  Focus carried one of the better detailed stories.

For weeks, they've been talking about the 'incidence rate' which is the 'gold-standard' in Germany for forcing ban-rules upon the public.  

To be kinda honest, with two-thirds of the public vaccinated.....they need to show a change (as if things are better).

So the 'hospitalization rate' will now be introduced.  It doesn't matter how many have Covid....it's the question if it's bad enough to end up in the hospital, per 100,000 people. 

The current rate per 100,000....if you were curious?  1.38 per 100k people.

If you used past numbers....how BAD did it get?  The government says between 10 and 12.

In the mind of the 'change-people'.....the vaccination has to lead onto better (lesser) numbers in the end.  

If you asked me to buy into this new formula?  I'd say numbers of some type have to be used, and I don't care how you arrive at the magic numbers.  Will there be odd outcomes?  Well....you could be sitting in a particular state (say Thuringia, in the east) and they have a great hospitalization rate of 2.5 in the midst of really bad numbers in Bavaria (say 6.5).....while if you used to the old method of regular incidence....they were both even at 125.  You'd say that it's just odd.....same people getting Covid but in one state.....fewer people end up in the hospital for some odd and unexplained reason.

How long will this hospitalization rate stay around?  If I were betting....I'd say this goes away by spring 2022, and another mathematical formula will be figured out by then. 

You Don't Want 'Kids' Too Smart Moment

 Last night, ARD ran 'Hard But Fair' (9:00 PM).  It's a public forum type show.....live....and typically done with a moderator and five guests.

You can go and view the show over at this site.

The topic?  Which party can you trust for environmental progress?

Yeah, it's a hyped-up deal to have about five weeks prior to the election.

So the guests....Schulze (SPD Party, Environmental Minister of the government), Cem Özdemir of the Greens, Markus Blume who is a ranking member of the CSU Party, Pauline Brünger who is a founding member of the 'Fridays for the Future' crowd, and Economist/Director of the Institute of German Economy Michael Hüther).

So to describe the group....Hüther is the capitalist, Özdemir is the voice of reason within the Green Party, Schulze is a 'bear' on getting climate legislation done, Brünger goes to the ninth degree on all matters related to the environment, and Blume is a moderate conservative.

So Brünger reaches some point in the panel discussion where she 'demands' that the parties all present their program....so the 'future' crowd can whittle down the group.  Then this marvelous moment comes up....the economist (Hüther) asks why the 'Fridays for the Future' crowd haven't organized their own political party in the past two years.  Özdemir then has to quickly step in before this answer can be delivered because the Green Party absolutely doesn't want the Future crowd to make this into a dividing factor, and take half the votes away from the Greens.

If you haven't figured out these two groups....the Green Party of Germany has shaped a theme over the past ten years where they aren't as radical or charged up as they might have been in the 1980s/1990s.  You can call them the moderate Greens or Greens-lite, but they realize today that you can't tear the economy apart or destroy jobs

The 'Fridays for the Future' crowd?  Well....they are all young (ages 12 to 20 mostly) and very willing to take extreme positions (destroying industries in Germany or forcing companies to relocate outside of Germany isn't a big deal).  

The Greens like the energized nature of the 'kids', but they don't want them to go crazy and take a half-million votes down some separate path....toward a 'Fridays for the Future' political party.  

Here's the thing.....if there were a million kids watching the moderator's show, and watched that suggestion fly by......they have to be standing there today and asking....why couldn't  we organize a political party and start participating in state elections?  

The Green Party elders now trying to quiet down the chatter?  I would imagine that they have to take this chatter out of the discussion and hope that the kids don't suddenly get 'smart' or start thinking independently.  

Political Chatter

 The last couple of days on the political campaign 'trail' in Germany have been a bit odd.

From over the weekend, the CDU candidate, Armin Laschet has gotten the Central Council of Jews in Germany to voice their support for him.

One can ask who German Jews typically support, and it's generally spread around all the parties....even the AfD folks (far-right wing).  

Why the support angle?  Unknown.  

A Look Back: Frankfurt Hauptbahnhof

 

This is part of my series on locations around Wiesbaden, for whose who were here in the 1970s/1980s.  Today?  The Frankfurt Hauptbahnhof station.

If you lived around Wiesbaden, you probably rode over to Frankfurt several times a year and walked through the station.

What you can describe today?  The structure is basically the same.  McDonalds and Burger King are there today.  A lot of the 'underground' in front of the building has aged harshly.  The drug characters from the 1990s are mostly gone, due to the police making an effort to chase them out.

The 'mile' in front of station?  Still heavily influenced by drugs, and I'd strongly recommend a walk in the district after dark.  It's pretty easy around 9 AM to find doped-up folks laying on the street area.

There's a major urbanization project (likely leading into the billions) where several extra tunnels will be added, even deeper under the structure.

Crime?  The station is one of those places that I'd advise you to get off your train and proceed onto the S-Bahn, U-Bahn or bus as quickly as possible.  I wouldn't linger and stand there admiring the structure.  If you do stand there....you kinda note after a while that there is a police presence, and you might encounter three or four patrols walking throughout the station or underground areas.  

Poison Episode

 There was an unusual event to occur at the Technical University of Darmstadt yesterday.  Our regional public TV folks did the best reporting of the incident.

What the cops say is that seven individuals gathered around at lunch, and drank both milk and water from the cafeteria situation.  All  would report poison-like effects and be taken to the hospital.

What the cops suggest?  Somewhere between Friday and Monday....somebody slipped in and put something into the liquids.

What the item was?  Unknown, and it'll probably take a week or two of testing to reach a conclusion.

Assessment by Public TV on Merkel Era

 Last night (Monday evening), ARD (public TV, Channel One) ran a 44-minute documentary piece, which ended up as a 'grading-point' on the Merkel sixteen year period.

So what you can say of the ARD interpretation?  Basically....it weaves a 5,800-odd day story, and tries to assemble some type of scorecard.

A conclusion?  The suggestion is basically revolving around two things: (1) a bunch of debt moved into the future for others to pay (suggesting the youth), and (2) a bunch of problems which evolved into multi-layered problems, which evolved into more problems.

Yeah, it was not the kind of 'grading-point' that you'd expect.

Suggesting a blame situation upon Merkel?  Well....maybe that came across (while not intended).

Some people will say their lives are not any better today than when she started out in 2005.  

More Germans on welfare today than sixteen years ago?  No doubt.  The long-term 'won't work' group has significant numbers.  Kids growing up in a permanent welfare situation?  Now an active issue.

Blame upon the Chancellor?  So far, the ARD folks have never come up with a clever method to resolve all problems.  Maybe if you could have a public 'fee-tax' where everyone got free money like public TV.....things would get better.  

At the end of the 44-minute piece, I was kinda wondering if you took German public TV and allowed a review of the past sixteen years.....would the public give them decent grades, or marginally class them in the same way as Merkel?

The 1.8 Million Germans

 I was looking over a Welt piece today, and an odd number came up.  1.8-million Germans live their retirement....outside of Germany.

It might be in Thailand, the Philippines, the US, Greece, Turkey, Spain, Italy or a dozen other countries.

They live mostly outside for two reasons.  Savings of money and weather.

Lets be honest....on cost of living....Germany is a 'pain'.  A German could take his pension income to a place like Thailand, and go twice as far on the value.

On weather....a lot of Germans like the four seasons, but are fairly critical on winter situations.  

The trend of more Germans living outside the country in retirement?  I would suggest it will continue to increase....as Germans find some 'paradise' where the pension goes further, or tropical living entices people to stay.

Immigrant Chatter

 If you haven't read my essays on a long-term basis....I generally note that the birth-rate has crapped-out....going back probably to even the 1960s.  This problem....affects major industries in Germany.

There's a great piece on N-TV today, where the head of the German Federal Employment Agency, Detlef Scheele, says that the nation needs about 400,000 immigrants per year.  

But he says this one little twist....this needs to be a 'targeted' situation for particular industries and the labor landscape.

In the interview, he kinda admits there is a push-back campaign from Germans on foreigners.....but there's no way to make up for the birth-rate issue, unless you bring in more immigrants.  

Olaf Scholz and the Odds of a Red-Red-Green Government

 Presently, it looks possible that the SPD Party will win the German election (26 Sep) and their guy (Olaf Scholz) will become Chancellor of Germany.

Lately, the question arises.....could he put together a coalition government of the SPD, Greens and Linke Party?

The general answer?

Presently, it looks like the SPD Party will max out at 24 to 25 percent of the vote.  The Greens?  It's looking like they will max at 17 percent of the vote.  The Linke Party will max at 7 percent.

Taking the optimum situation....this totals up to around 49 percent of the vote.  Taking the lesser situation....it totals near 47 to 48 percent.  In this scenario, it's not enough to have a leftist government coalition.

In the past, this question has been raised in previous elections, and a majority of German voters (even SPD voters) don't favor a left-left-left type coalition.  

A Look Back: Wiesbaden and Change

 Part of my series over Wiesbaden, and designed for folks who might have been stationed here in the 1960s, 1970s, or 1980s.

The five key changes that you'd probably notice today.

1.  Traffic in the city is 'hell'.  If you gauge rush-hour in the mornings and afternoons, figure around 293,000 residents....it's an absolute mess.

Everyone agrees on this, and various things have been discussed (the tram idea lasted 3 years before the vote disqualified it).  There's even a discussion about making the whole downtown car-free.

2.  The city has become multi-culty.  In the 1960s, the foreign non-German image was mostly Turks, Greeks, Italians and Americans in Wiesbaden.

Today?  I'd go and suggest at least fifty different ethnic groups.  You could easily be introduced to Chileans, or Venezuelans at some restaurant, and South Koreans or Malaysians at a cafe.  

3.  Crime is something that you don't think much about in the daylight hours, but it's a part of your evening experience.  I'd say from 10 PM to sun-up....at least four areas of the city are no-go or avoid areas now.  

It reached a point around two years ago where the city council made the shopping district into a 'no-weapons-zone' from 9 PM on (just making this rule, didn't cure the knife problem).  If you go into the area....cops are free to stop you now, force an ID check, and a frisk.  Weapons on you?  Automatic charges and nothing cheap on the fine business.

For a one-year period, we had this silly fake-cop situation....where they'd stop tourists and demand to review their purse or wallet....removing cash.

4. Alcoholics and drug addicts.  Between the train station area and downtown, there's probably in the range of sixty 'habit-people' that you might notice.  

The drug scene is mostly to the rear of the train station (left side as you face it)....back toward the club scene.  

The drinker crowd make the rounds of garbage cans, looking for deposit bottles/cans, to return and make enough to pay for their next beer.  

5.  Beggars?  From the early AM hours to almost sundown....if you walk the downtown area....if you were comparing things today with 1980....you'd be a bit shocked over the number of beggars. 

I'd say in a one-hour period of walk, you'd probably encounter at least five.  

The positive side?

1.  Wiesbaden is expected to continue to grow (presently 293k residents).  If you measured the quality of life, most residents would give high marks.   Even if you included crime, most would tell that it's much better than Frankfurt.  

2.  If you used TripAdvisor for restaurants in the area, it'd lay out literally hundreds of options. If you drew the 10 km circle, you could probably eat out every night of the week for two years, without going back to any repeats.

3.  The Kurpark and casino are still the central draw for tourism for the city.

4.  If you drew both Wiesbaden and Mainz together, with a 10 km 'zone'....the population base is 750k easily.  You just don't get that massive 'urbanized' feeling over the combined region.

5.  The railway station might have changed a dozen interior operations over the years (both a McDonalds and KFC today sit there), but it's still the best way to stumble through and board a train to any destination in Germany or Europe.  

A 3-G Society?

 As of today (23rd of August), the '3G' rule is in effect in Germany, over Covid-19.  The rule?  A list of business operations are given by the government, and if you are one of these....no one can enter the facility unless they meet one of the three exceptions: (1) Vaccinated, (2) Recovered, or (3) Tested in the past 24 hours (quickie-tests) or 48 hours (PCR test, the more expensive type).

The locations we are talking about?

Banks, casinos, dance-halls, nail salons, hair shops, nursing homes, hospitals, fitness centers, tattoo shops, bars, pubs, restaurants, hotels, discos, theaters, concerts, air travel, or driving school.

As long as the incidence rate is 35 or higher in your local area....that's the rule.

What happens next?

I would suggest five things:

1.  The use of the 'free' tests at the quick-centers will bump up quickly.  Some people might be using them five times a week.  In about two months, the 'free' tests are supposed to end (gov't orders).  What happens after that point is an unknown.

2.  If you live in an area where the rate is 35 or higher, but 22 km away....is a town where the rate is 25...well, where do you think you will be doing your business?  Your banking, your partying at a pub, your use of a tattoo shop?  I'll go and predict that urban areas see a massive decline in business within four weeks.  Organizations will start to publicize a under-35 town and get more business generated.

3.  Just in general.....non-vax folks will just refuse to spend their money for a period of time.  You will start to have bars, restaurants and nightclubs around Frankfurt and Hamburg which yank on the chain of the local mayor....they've lost 30-percent of their profit base.  They openly tell the politicians that less income....means LESS tax revenue.

4.  At some around the end of September, the various state governments will start to admit that the 'gifted' crowd (vax-folks) are getting Covid inside of theaters, pubs, bars and discos.  A vax-guy will pass it to another vax-guy....even though the rules indicated this was not going to happen.  How you explain this to the public?  It might be curious to watch this unfold.

5.  Finally, at some point after Christmas....I expect the 3G rule to be taken apart, and modified or discarded entirely.  The free-testing business?  It might start up entirely.  The way you arrive at the infection rate?  That might be brought under extreme review and questions asked.  

Silly rule?  I wouldn't say that.  They have to do something, and in a closed-in group of politicians.....they believe that 3G will trigger another 10-to-20 percent of society to get vaccinated.  The implication of people just holding their cash and refusing to spend money on commerce?  Well....it might shock politicians that people would think that way.  Certainly, you don't want half the bars in Frankfurt to shutdown because their client/customer base is sitting in a park with other non-vax clients....sipping off beer they bought via a grocery.  

That Rant Chatter

 I'm putting up the site for the 28-minute rant by Renzo that goes over the 'incompetence' business of various German politicians.  Accuracy on his points?  Well....if I were grading him, I'd say none of the points are fraudulent, and most all meet a level of truthfulness.  

Here's the one key point.....he lays this out as 'Teil 1', which means in the next week or two.....there's going to be a 'Teil 2' and maybe even a 'Teil 3' as you get to the election Sunday.

For the CDU, AfD, and Greens....it's a pretty harsh event to go and expect.  

The people who watch Renzo?  Mostly of the age group 15 to 25.  Analysts suggest that he has a million to two-million followers in Germany, and his opinion matters.

Kid-Fight

 This is an unusual story, told by the police of Hamburg-Eimsbüttel (an area that I'd put in north Hamburg...just east of Altona).  The info comes off their own web site.

One cop was on bike-patrol in the Eimsbüttel area....near a school.  Trouble is seen by the policeman....two boys fighting.  A  group of kids are standing around the two fighting.

Policeman rides up to this....dismounts, and gets into the middle of this to halt the fight.  One assumes that he radios in his situation, and some police-center reacts.

One of the kids (13 years old) has his hand continually in his jacket pocket.  Policeman 'knows' the kid....meaning that there's been run-in's with the kid before.  Policeman tells the kit do remove his hand from the pocket....kid does NOT comply.

The situation intensifies....kid puts up resistance.  Policeman is trying now to strong-arm (physically) the kid.

The two (in some wrestling-like situation) are now on the ground.  Other kids in the group are now hitting, kicking and assaulting the policeman....while he still holds the kid on the ground.

Police began to arrive.  Roughly 80 kids are in this mess.

More police are assaulted, spit upon, and hit.

Twelve squad cars end up there (two police in each).

The 13-year old kid?  Only when he is taken into full custody and removed from the scene by car....does the mess start to decrease.

Police would detain two additional kids (12 and 13 years old) as well....later handing them to their guardians.

Dangerous physical harm charges and insult laws broke?  Yes, and the three kids detained probably will face some minor consequences.  

It's a trend that you see in major urbanized areas of Germany now....where respect for the police is decreasing, and it reaches down into kids now being a respect problem.  

What the kid had in his pocket?  That might be interesting to know (Maybe a knife or pepper-spray, or just Juicy-Fruit gum), and that would have gotten him into a ton of extra trouble.  

Weed Story

 N-TV had an update this morning over the new German national rules on cannabis (weed, marijuana, etc).

So the deal is this....up until today, there were differing view state by state (16 of them) in Germany.  Now?  One standard.  

If the police stop you and you have a 'baggy' (6 grams)....it's purely for personal use.  You won't be prosecuted or asked questions by the police.

In some states, it's been that way for a number of years.  It's just that now....one single standard exists for the nation.   

Cargo-Bike Story

 There's this trend in Germany....with 'cargo-bikes'.  What is a cargo-bike?  It's basically a normal bike for the rear half, and for the front.....you have a wheel-barrow type cargo area.  You could haul a dog, or a kid or groceries.  Battery-type?  Yes, or you could get a non-battery type.  Cost level?  Well....this goes from 1,500 Euro minimum....on up to 6,000 Euro (for the really nice ones).

I sat once at a park next to a bike shop (in Mainz), and viewed a gal who'd come for a test-ride of such a bike.  There are two types.....the two wheel version and the three wheel version. 

For this test ride....she tried the 3-wheeler....with no issues.  But with the two wheeler, she had issues keeping the 'weight' center.  It's a bike with around a meter of cargo space in the front of the bike.  

So I bring all of this up....because the Green Party talked over this issue of the cargo-bikes this past weekend.  They want to push an agenda through the Bundestag....to 'gift' each German around 1,000 Euro.  They aren't clear about how much the cargo-bike needs to cost....to get the 'grant' (I would assume that you need to spend at least 4,000 Euro....to get the 1,000 Euro grant).

How popular would this idea be?  Unknown.  If you asked me how many of these you might see around Wiesbaden on an average day.....I'd say around three-hundred of them.  Would more people get into this....for the thousand-Euro deal?  Maybe.

Talking Cabinet Posts

 After 26 September, whoever the winner of the federal election is....they have to determine who fills the cabinet positions.

Vice-Chancellor (currently saddled with the Finance Minister job)

Finance Minister

Interior, Building and Community Minister

Foreign Affairs Minister

Federal Minister of Justice and Consumer Protection

Federal Minister for Economics and Energy

Federal Minister of Labor and Social Affairs

Federal Minister of Defense

Federal Minister of Agriculture and Food

Federal Minister of Transportation and Digital Instructure

Federal Minister of Health

Federal Minister of Research and Education

Federal Minister of Special Affairs

Federal Minister of Economic Cooperation and Development

Federal Minister for Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Affairs

So under the scenario of a SPD win, if you tried to make this all work with the CDU-CSU party, and the FDP (to get over a 50-percent coalition)....you'd have to break the cabinet up into four groups getting a minimum of one to two seats each.

Covid Chatter

 There's a great graphic over on Twitter, covering the data on Covid 19 from EDIM, from 'Risklayer'.

One side is the incidence rate from 3 Aug across Germany, and on the other side....the incidence rate from 17 Aug.  Basically....everything doubled in a 2-week period.

You can say Berlin, the Hamburg region, and the state of NRW....a huge increase of Covid in a two week period.

The incidence level (per 100k) for own state of Hessen?  Just about up to the level it was four months ago (spring period).

Deportee Story

 You can kinda laugh about this....but N-24 news this morning reported that while the Germans were busy handling the evacuation business in Kabul and simply throwing people on the German military plane to be brought into Germany.....they also allowed a Afghan guy who'd been to Germany before....who got into serious criminal behavior, and was booted-out/deported.  So the guy is returning to Germany once again.

Odds that he'll get back into bad-boy trouble again?  Hard to predict.  Maybe he learned his lesson.  If I were the Germans, I'd pull the guy into a room and give him the simple warning....sooner or later, the German government will have an arrangement with the Taliban government to accept 'deportees' once again.  Maybe the guy will take the hint....live a simple lifestyle and not screw up on this second chance in life.

Influencer Politics?

 Here in Germany, we have this YouTuber/vlogger/influencer-guy by the the name of Rezo (actual name Yannick Frickenschmidt).

Rezo is a fairly smart clever guy....has a computer science background....and would surprise you with around 1.7-million Germans who follow him and his analysis.

Back in 2019, he got into the EU election campaign swing, and blasted the CDU Party.  Journalists and politicians suddenly woke up and realized that this blue-hair geeky guy connected to a million-plus votes.  

So, Rezo comes up this weekend.  He's blasted the CDU Party once again.....mostly over incompetence (he even names the three characters in question).

Yeah, Laschet (the Chancellor candidate for the CDU) is one of the three.

Just the CDU that he dumped on?  No, he dumped on the Greens as well.

Any of this mattering?  Here's the thing, in a normal German election, there are around 46-million people voting.  If you had a YouTube influencer stand up a month prior to the election and really blast away on some party 'promises' and candidates....triggering a 1-to-2 million vote 'swing'....you could see a drastic change in the outcome of an election.

The fact that Rizzo hasn't blasted the SPD or FDP?  Yeah, that is noticeable. 

Mostly the youth vote that he is influencing?  Yeah, that is noticeable as well.

The chief problem of the CDU is that they don't have a counter-influencer behind their party strategy.  

Just another odd part of the 2021 election here in Germany.

[1] is a German YouTuber, vlogger and influencer who in 2019 ignited a fiery political debate with his video "Die Zerstörung der CDU".[2] In it, he heavily criticized the then ruling grand coalition in Germany, especially the coalition leading party CDU.

Polling Chatter

 The Insa polling organization (a group I'd rate highly) completed their weekly political poll, and it's dismal news for Merkel's CDU Party.

According to this poll, the CDU Party has fallen to the point where the SPD is even with them (both at 22 percent).

The Greens?  They lost a point over the last poll (now at 17 percent), while the FDP Party gained a point (now at 13 percent).

The Linke Party sits at 7 percent.

If you look at the pace or trend line, it'd be a safe bet to say that the SPD will marginally win this election (maybe 2 to 3 points over the CDU).

The curious thing is that a SPD win, or CDU win....is of such small numbers....they would have to combine with a third group (probably FDP or Greens).

This means the ministry posts, and coalition document would be a difficult mess to iron out.  

With a SPD win.....would the CDU even get the vice-Chancellor position?  I'd suggest that this might not occur, and the FDP might score big getting the position. 

Highly dramatic ending coming up?  No doubt.  

Electrical Chat

 My wife (German in nature) and I got into a chat this week over a house around the corner, which is undergoing renovation.

The house built in the mid-1960s....is going to require a major electrical upgrade (top to bottom).  It's the first real renovation done since it was built.  

So the topic of electrical use came up.

If you walked into the typical 'new' house in 1968 in West Germany....the kitchen was likely the only room in  the house to have multiple plugs on the walls.  People still made coffee the old 'drip' way.  Other than the stove, and the refrigerator....there just weren't other appliances.

For the rest of the house?  There might have been one single outlet in the entry hallway, just for the use of the vacuum cleaner.  The bedroom?  Maybe just one to two outlets....with your clock likely to be a wind-up type.  The living room?  Maybe one to two outlets (one for a lamp, and the other for the TV or radio).  

I sat there counting the number of electrical items now in the house....the end-result being near forty-five items that need some type of connection (eight being rechargeable battery type).  

When our house was renovated twenty years ago....the massive addition of plugs was planned in the process.  

All of this leading to a higher consumption of power than thirty years ago?  No doubt.  There may be lesser power drawn upon the grid, but the number of devices increases year by year.  

Looking Back: The Big Apple Disco

 This is one of a series of essays on locations around Wiesbaden for Army/AF people who were based here in the 1960s to 1980s.

The Big Apple Disco, on Kirchgasse 66?  Gone.  

Some will say that it went away around 2003/2004, flipping to techno music, and losing some of it's audience.

If you remember the entire structure.....part was a kino/theater, and the rest was a ballroom, which was made up in the late 1970s to be a disco operation.  The story goes that it was the second disco establishment in Germany (whether the story is true or not.....unknown).

In terms of business, I think by the mid-1990s, it was marginally surviving.  

There's been talks (since 2017) of converting it into something 'else'.  

A Bad Sign

 I sat and watched a bit of N-TV  news tonight, and up came a update on Covid-19.

Apparently, as of Monday....Spain will consider any Spaniard coming back from Germany....to have come from a Covid-high-risk region.  

Is it getting that bad?  The map went up and five regions/states of Germany have increasing numbers.  Three states (mostly on the from the far east side of the country) are on an extremely low trend for Covid (no idea why).

As of last evening, the new infection rate bumped up (8,100 new infections in one single day).  In my local town of Wiesbaden, they reported 34 newly infected folks in the past 24 hours.

Political Chatter

 I read through Focus this afternoon....there's a CDU Bundestag member who openly said that candidate Laschet (their Chancellor candidate for the party) has to resign from the election if the numbers don't improve in 2 weeks.

Blunt?  Well....it'd be a event that has never occurred in German politics.  

The election?  26 September.

The current trend?  Most polls will show since June....a point-down almost every ten days.  The CDU is regarded as only 2 points ahead of the SPD, and if you figure the time remaining....I'd suggest that the SPD ought to be able to win (maybe by 3 points).

Naturally, you'd ask....if the guy did resign, could they appoint a new candidate ASAP?  Well....the party couldn't, but the executive council of the party could.  Their likely choice?  They would grumble but likely pick Soder (Premier-President of Bavaria).  

What would happen under that scenario?  Within 7 days, I'd suggest a 4-point rebound, and by the 26th of September......a 10-point margin over the SPD.  

But would Laschet do this?  I'd give a 95-percent chance of him NOT quitting.  

Afghanistan Rescue Business

 Focus put up a news piece this morning and said that the German government has approved the use of KSK forces to go into Kabul, with the use of their helicopters, and pull-out/rescue Germans (away from the airports and in the urbanized areas).  KSK?  I'd describe them as the elite special forces of German military, who have the primary duty of securing a terror event (like the Munich Olympics episode).

Risk?  Yeah, this goes to the top level of risk.

How many Germans are still in the country, waiting for an exit?  The gov't simply says a mid-range 3-digit number.  

This likely escalating matters?  If you go and mention that the French and British are doing the same thing?  Yeah.

I would speculate that by the middle of next week.....at least a gun-battle or two will take place in the city, with one of these rescue groups and the Taliban.  This will only speed up the end.  

Covid Chatter

 Not exactly five-star news and probably won't make it on the nightly German news, but Focus reported today that the Oxford medical folks did a study.  Basically....vaccinated folks are just as contagious as non-vax people.

I don't think this is much of a shock, and probably will trigger the zero-cost Covid quickie-tests to be brought back by the end of the year.  

Freedom Chatter

 Back around sixteen years ago....RTL (commercial German TV) and N-TV (commercial news) got this idea to create a 'Freedom Index'.  Its a study by the Institute for Demoskopie Allensbach (IfD).  

Somehow, the smart guys there figured some subjective way of getting inside of people, and getting their perception of 'freedom'.  Yeah, I know.....it does sound a bit weird to measure freedom.

I noticed this popping up in the news today, via N-TV.  

So here's the thing....ONLY around 36-percent of Germans today.....feel free.  It's the lowest score since they started this study.

Reasons?  Well....this gets to a perception as well.

There's a suggestion about social commitment (that you have to be pro-asylum, pro-environment, or pro-whatever).  There's also talk of expression being suppressed now (over what you can say or talk about).  

Covid likely having an effect on Germans?  No doubt.  A lot of people know limits exist on vacations, and there are consequences drilled down upon them....upon their return to the country.  

Almost every week, the news media lets you know that so-and-so is being investigated for right-wing extremism.....or for tax-fraud....or for passing around a racist joke. 

My forecast for the 2022 survey?  It'll probably drop at least a point or two.

So are Germans less free?  I would speculate and say that a fair number are living rich and fulfilling lives, and would easily cast damnation upon any suggested 'less-freedoms'.  Perhaps the term here to be used....are you more regulated or plagued by rules, than you were in 2005?  In that case...approaching 50 to 70 year old Germans....they'd laugh for a minute and respond with a 'yes'. 

My fitness center (here in Wiesbaden) came up and said the city regulations got more rough this week.....I have to show proof of vaccination, proof of having gotten over Covid, or have a daily test done.  But they were pretty nice about the test business....if you just walked in with a Covid test-kit (3 Euro), they'd test you at the counter, and if 'negative'....you got full-access.  

It's another regulation, or hinderance.....but it's a society based on rules now.  It's not 1977 anymore.  

A Look Back: Camp Lindsey

 Third in my series, for the folks who were based in Wiesbaden from the 1960s to the 1980s.  Today's topic?  Camp Lindsey, on Highway 262 exiting Wiesbaden on the SW.

So if you walked out into the 'quarter', you'd say that 50-percent of the buildings are familiar, and that the rest are new apartment/condo structures.

A couple of German government groups took over a building or two.  VHS (the community college of Wiesbaden) took over several entire buildings.  The police have a district group in one building.  There's one single restaurant on the whole Camp Lindsey area.  

Kentucky Fried Chicken is across the street from the 'quarter'.

The German Federal Criminal office took up the more impressive structure on the far west side of the 'quarter'.

The old gym?  Still there.

Picture to the right?  Main drag of the 'camp'.

The ball field?  Well....half of it remains and is used for kid's soccer in the district.  The other part was converted over to be a Edeka grocery operation with apartments above it (one of the largest buildings in Wiesbaden today).  On the corner of the grocery, a nifty bakery with outdoor cafe seating (probably one of the better bakeries in this part of town).  

Street names?  Some changed....some stayed the same.  The main 'drag' from east to west is Willy Brandt Strasse today, and you can't drive the entire route (they made up some funny rule to forbid total access to the street unless you are a bus).  To enforce it, they put up a blitz-camera.

Good re-use?  I'd suggest that this was probably a five-star plan.  

Note, if you were looking for parking in this 'quarter'?  You would be screwed.  It's one of the worst areas of Wiesbaden to find an open parking spot.

Door Opening For More Afghans Entering Germany?

 Late yesterday, Seehofer (the German Interior Minister, CSU Party) made a comment, which Focus picked and did a ten-line story over.

He said that Germany might go the route of skipping an EU platform, and just take on the refugee business in Afghanistan themselves.

How many?  That part was left out of the story.  Being this close to the election....I don't think they want the public get upset or negative about the idea.

My humble guess?  For August/September, you might be talking about 10,000 flown out and brought into Germany.  Whether the Taliban will allow this type of exodus to occur?  Well....that's another problem by itself.

If you asked me over this growing in October/November/December?  I might suggest that another twenty-odd thousand might get on some list. I don't think it'll go much past that point....mostly because of fear that the AfD Party might make it a major issue, thus affecting the 2022 state elections.  

All of this making the pro-asylum crowd in Germany happy?  No.  You'd have to start talking about ten times that number to make folks reasonably happy.  

Afghanistan Chatter

 Over the past five days....a lot of talk in Germany has centered on perceptions by the German Federal Intelligence Service, or BND (the German CIA).....and why they really didn't know about the Afghan 'fall' that was about to occur.

There are various ways to look at this, but I'd offer this scenario.

Lets say for the sake of the argument that the BND was there, and had five folks making up their core collection and assessment business.  

In an average week, these five went out and spoke to Afghan national police, the Afghan military headquarters, the CIA, the American Army, the US ambassador, the US State Department sophisticated folks, and another dozen-odd groups of 'spooks'.  Maybe they even sipped coffee with the Russian 'spooks' once a week.

So they take everything and come to realize there's three different Afghanistans being laid out and described by all these groups.  The US Army folks are painting a dire situation, with maps updated hour by hour.  The CIA folks go mostly in this direction.  Then you get Afghan folks to say things which indicate threats exist but it's not that bad.  Then finally you come to the US Ambassador and State Department folks who seem super-positive.  

Rather than looking at the maps, and the weekly progress of territory being taken over by the Taliban....you seem to believe the sophisticated State Department folks. So you write a three-page report which goes back to Berlin, and it's read by Chancellor Merkel occasionally.  

Problems now?  Well....if the BND screwed up on that assessment....what else are they screwing up on?  The BND crew in Afghanistan being sent to some basement operation in Berlin as 'punishment'?  Maybe.....but you will just get a fresh new group who likely will fall into the same issues.

Dumping all of this into the public domain, and having public forums on ARD or ZDF.....to give blame assessments?  Well....it's a sad part of the whole story, but that's the reality of the mess created.  

JFK-21 Party?

 So there's this new political party in Denmark: JFK-21.  No.....has nothing to do with President Kennedy.

I sat this morning and viewed their platform.

First, they want all home loans to be interest-free.  The National Bank of Denmark would be told to just issue this.  

Second, housing would be a right.  You'd go to the local district, and if you were homeless, they'd have to put you 'somewhere'.  It might not be much to brag about, but you'd get something.

Third, income tax would eventually go away.  How you'd tax?  You'd do it on consumption, resources used, and digital money use.  In simple terms, the size of government would likely be cut.  

Fourth, property tax for most regular homes would go away.  You'd tax only on Danish homes of 1-million DKK or more.

Fifth, decentralization would be pushed as much as possible.

Sixth, there would be a right of people have an independent assessment done, if a complaint of a citizen was lodged.  

Seventh, politicians would be held accountable for 'lies'.  If they promised something would happen, and it never occurs....they'd be removed from the political scene.  What the guy would do in life?  Unknown.  It'd probably force a lot of politicians to just never promise anything.  

Eighth, any politician who holds a special interest (proven, I assume in court)....has to ease themselves out of office.

Ninth, participation in war can only occur if Denmark is the one being invaded or attacked.  Beyond that....Danish military can't deploy beyond the border.

Tenth, some type of prison time for anyone who uses 'false flags' or propaganda to push some agenda for the public.

Eleventh, 'free-trade-agreements' are always fake, so the party would not respect or honor any such agreement.

Twelfth, enforced supervision of companies that can't run an ethical company....or you dissolve the company (meaning they'd probably have pick-up and leave Denmark).

Thirteenth, exit of the EU is mandated.

Fourteenth, only paper ballots to be used in all elections.  No computers or readers.  Manual society on voting.

Fifteen, 5G systems banned in Denmark.

Sixteen, use of pesticides to end.  Everything is to be state-mandated organic.

Seventeen, schools move to flex-time.  Kids would be finished at 14, unless they wanted more education.

Eighteen, lying on public media/TV situations would be reviewed.

Some of their positions actually make sense.  But it's a rather new party.

The thing about Danish elections....if you get 2-percent or more in voting, you get seats in the parliament (not the usual 5-percent like Germany has).  I could see these guys in the next election getting a seat or two.   

Poll Story

 I noticed a poll story this AM (N-24), which discussed a poll done by Civey (a fairly respected polling organization).

So the question, if Laschet (CDU Chancellor candidate) ends up winning....how respectful are you of the guy, as Chancellor?

Half of the audience that Civey asked....said 'very negatively', and three-quarters of the audience said a minimum of 'negative'.  So you only had a quarter of the Germans in this poll that seemed happy with the idea of Laschet becoming Chancellor. 

A problem?  

I'll just present it this way....every week that goes by....the odds of the CDU winning....diminish.  I'd say the SPD odds are on a upward trend, and all of this relates to Laschet and the general perception of the guy.  If you say three-quarters of the nation aren't that thrilled over the idea of him being Chancellor....it's a problem.

If the CDU loses this election (some hints exist to suggest they might only get 20-percent in the election on 26 Sep)?  The executive committee of the CDU deserves 99-percent of the blame.....they were the acting group that put Laschet up as the candidate.  

Surveillance Story

 So, were Bavarian soccer fans being secretly monitored/surveilled by the Bavarian authorities?

I know....it sounds crazy to ask this question, but N-TV came up this AM, and told this one simple basic story.

What is revealed....by Green Party members at the Bavarian Landtag (the state assembly)....is that around 1,644 Germans are on some state watch list...purely because of soccer.  They suggest around 500 of the folks are Bavarians....while the rest are probably non-Bavarian.  

Why the Greens asked this question, and demanded an answer from the authorities?  Unknown.  That might be a curious to ask.  

Telling a lot about the folks?  Well....they listed the games where these people attended, the seats that they sat in, and related some personal information (never explained in detail).

Now, I will admit that half the clubs in the nation....have some fan groups/gangs, which are violent in nature.  But to the extent that you get on some watch list by the authorities? 

This likely drawing public attention and demands for explanation?  I would imagine that a judge is going to be drawn into this, and ask some stupid questions.  But if you dig into this file....you probably will find another file with Fridays-for-the-Future kids listed on it, and another file with anti-Vaxx folks listed.  

Berlin and 'Havana-Syndrome'

 In the period of late 2016....a couple of American diplomats in Havana, Cuba reported health issues (nausea, dizziness, hearing loss, memory loss, and headaches).  

What the health experts came to conclude was that someone was using a directed pulse RF-energy 'weapon'.....basically a microwave in a backpack or briefcase, and 'dosing' some nearby folks.  Cubans?  Chinese?  Russians?  Unknown.

This has repeated on a number of occasions....always diplomatic people.

So, I noted in Focus this morning....the episode has occurred in Berlin, with two Americans from the embassy.  The accusation?  Russians.  Proof?  Zero.

But Focus brings out one additional detail....there's some rumors going around that the Russians had a 'top secret' program going on where they could intercept someone's cellphone operation, and flip the cellphone into being a RF-energy weapon. 

Weird stuff....like out of a James Bond movie?  More or less.

Amount of power needed for something like this....with the cellphone?  I would take a guess that if fully power (battery charged up).....there might be enough power to 'dose' someone one good time.  

If this is proven?  It's going to frighten the heck out of people.  

A Look Back: Amelia Earhart Hotel

 Second in a series on structures around Wiesbaden, for folks who were stationed here with the Army/Air Force in the 1960s to 1980s era.

Today, the Amelia Earhart Hotel on the Konrad-Adenauer-Ring (SW Wiesbaden). 

So the Amelia Earhart hotel building is still there....no longer used as a hotel, but used by the US government for office space.   The structure stands, same as in the 1980s.

Across the street, for those who remember the Walter's Futterkrippe Imbis site....it's still there and providing the same level of food.  Prices?  Well....it's probably tripled over what you paid in 1978.  

I would imagine the menu hasn't changed in over forty years.

The hospital site (100 meters away)?  It was turned over to the German police. Far as I can tell....nothing on this site was torn down...everything is still the same.

If you go further east on the ring, there's the sports field/sports hall.  Part of the sports field is being dug up and a new indoor pool complex (with parking) is to be built (probably 2025 before it's done).  It'll replace the old indoor complex on Mainzer Strasse (really in decay at this point).

Germany and Afghanistan: 19 Aug 2021

 1.  N-TV had a report this morning that Chancellor Merkel will have a phone-chat with President Biden shortly.....asking for US military help in getting some Afghans out of Afghanistan.  

2.  The 'maintenance-hog' A400M transport aircraft that the Bundeswehr is operating in the rescue effort?  Well....yeah, it broke down.  A replacement plane has been sent, with parts for the broke plane.  I doubt if anyone is that shocked within the German Air Force.  

3.  This chatter from the EU about a master-plan for evacuation (bringing high numbers of Afghans out)?  Austria stood up and said it's not going to be fully accepted.  I don't think anyone is really surprised, and without total acceptance within the EU block of countries....the idea will just stop right there.  I would suggest trust is lacking in terms of how far this idea would go, and the numbers in the mix.  

4.  Some finger-pointing by the Defense Minister (AKK) at the German Foreign Ministry?  Well....this goes to a paperwork 'drill' where the German military was prepared to go in early, and remove Afghan workers (formerly via the embassy and various agencies).  The Afghans needed visas rigged up and the Foreign Ministry couldn't speed up the process.  Lot of bitterness over how this was handled under Maas's crew at the Foreign Ministry.  

5.  Lot of video used as Afghans and Germans arrived back in Germany by both ARD and ZDF (public TV in Germany).  They must have interviewed forty-odd people in the arrival-hall.   

Odds of a Afghan Refugee Admission Program by the Germans?

 Chatter started up already on Monday, and it's hitting turbo on both ARD/ZDF  (the two public TV networks).  The pro-asylum groups are also hyping the suggested agenda.

So what'll happen?  I'll suggest four things:

1.  The CDU-CSU-SPD coalition really doesn't want to open this discussion...knowing that the AfD Party will pick it up and possibly seize more points to the 26 September federal election.  

2.  Even if you got past the election and opened the discussion....the topic will quickly turn to 'how many'.  The government might be willing to bend a bit and openly discuss 20k to 40k.  The pro-asylum folks?  I think they'd start talks of 500k to 1-million.  

3.  Even if the two groups could find a center-point, how about those 40-odd thousand refugees (Syrian and Iraqi) in Greece....waiting up to three years now for their chance to enter Germany?  They will say they deserve first entry, over everyone else.

4.  Finally, you turn to working-class Germans.  They all remember how crapped-out the situation developed into back in 2015/2016.  They don't want a repeat.  Go ask either Scholz (SPD) or Laschet (CDU), likely winners of the Chancellor election....how either feel, and it won't be a happy feeling.  Go add up the flood-victims over in the far west of Germany, the Greta-environmental kids, and angry Covid folks....it's a stressful time to be a politician.   I just don't give many good odds on a admission program developing.  

Model Chatter

 Focus went and did a chat with Netcheck, a company that does trend analysis (using GPS info and contact indexes).  

So here's the blunt side of this conversation....trend numbers are leading to models which suggest a higher level of Covid incidence situations.

The idea that people are hanging out....socializing, and going back to pre-Covid behavior?  I would go and suggest that trend is openly seen on the streets of Germany today.

The idea that some national change will occur and a new type of incidence 'gimmick' will be devised?  Some have suggested over the past month that if you just have plain Covid and don't end up at the hospital or dead....that ought to be included in the national model.  

It's basically a way to say vaccinations had an effect....even if you get Covid and end up on a 12-day sick-leave deal with home-quarantine.  

At this point....anything that prevents curfews or intense lock-downs....probably gets full-support of most Germans.  

The Afghan Deportee List?

 There were various Afghans in Germany, who got into bad behavior situations over the past couple of years (assaults, crime, drug sales, etc), and they got themselves on a deportee list.

So now?  What happens?

Virtually everything regarding the 'bad-boys' on the list who were supposed to head back to Afghanistan....is on hold.

Whether the deportations start back up?  This goes to what perception that the German government gets out of the new Taliban government.  I'd go and say it's a 50-50 situation. 

If the 'good' Taliban landscape were to occur, with the Taliban working out some probable 'pay-us-baksheesh' situation....with safety ensured for the bad-boys upon their return, maybe something could be worked out.

The pro-asylum folks putting up a legal fight over this type of deportation?  Very high odds on that.

One could ask the question....how did the bad-boys come to be on the deportee list, and the general description of things (through the eyes of journalists)....these were immature young men without much adult authority, who got into drugs/hard drinking and petty crime.  They didn't seem to rationalize that they could get deep into trouble, and be sent back to Afghanistan.  

On related topics that journalists will talk about for the next week....I'd say this item is in the top ten issues to be worked out.  

Bundeswehr Approved for 'Rescue' in Afghanistan

 The Merkel coalition finally this morning....agreed to a precise number (600) of Bundeswehr (Army) members to operate in Kabul.  Yeah, it took this long to get some agreement out of the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition.

Done?

Well....NO.

Now, this action has to be put to the full Bundestag.  Timing?  N-TV says in the past 30 minutes....it probably won't be put to the full Bundestag until early next week.

A long delayed process?  Yeah, and the journalists can slam the political process an awful lot, but this is how things have developed over the past thirty-odd years in Germany.

The fact that almost all of the opposition parties might vote this down?  I'd suggest that it's a reasonable possibility.  But if you have the CDU-CSU-SPD votes....that's a majority.

The fact that the Taliban might shut down the airport entirely by Sunday?  Well....yeah, that possibility exists as well.

Voting in September

 ARD (public TV, Channel One) carried a good update on the voting situation, and is worth viewing.

From the 2017 vote....around one-third of Germans voted by postal ballots.  The government tends to believe the same, if not more, will occur on 26 September.  

Fraud suggestions (like in the US)?  No.  If you look at how the ballots are controlled and mailed out, 99.9-percent of Germans see this as a honest and non-fraudulent situation.  

You only get the ballot, if you are registered in your village (as mandated by law anyway), an national ID card is shown, and only if you ask for a ballot.  If you asked for a mail-ballot, they aren't going to allow you to show up on voting day and possibly cast two votes. 

If you used the term 'organized'?  I'd say that the Germans go to the ninth-degree on regulations, and would feel insulted for anyone to suggest fraud in voting or counting. 

Another thing which ought to be mentioned....when the voting concludes on that Sunday.....anyone can ask to stand in the room/facility and view the counting.  There's no funny rules to limit access.  They might put up a rope to keep you on one side of the room, or limit the number of viewers to what would be 'safe'.  There is generally an enormous amount of effort to show fair and accountable voting, and counting.

Polling Chatter

 RTL has a poll which goes to the voting situation (26 Sep), and the numbers look this way:

CDU/CSU: 23-percent.

SPD: 21-percent (on a upward trend right now).

Greens: 19-percent (on a downward trend).

AfD: 10-percent.

FDP: 12-percent.

Linke Party: 6-percent.

If this were to hold....a combined CDU-CSU/SPD total would not go over 50-percent....thus requiring a 3rd party to participate, and making a coalition more difficult.

If you asked me about the SPD picking up two or three more points, I'd say it's extremely possible, and that the CDU-CSU could easily lose 3 points in the final weeks.  

Afghanistan From a German Prospective

 A lot has happened over the past week, and it's worth a few moments to think about the path of things, and consequences:

1.  Blasting of the Chancellor and the cabinet.  A lot of criticism has been dumped on the Chancellor, the Foreign Minister (Maas, SPD), and the Defense Minister (AKK).  

The journalists want to know how they got this so wrong, and government's position is....well....it just happened.  It would appear (to me) that they don't want to admit that their sole source of information and understanding was the Biden White House and the US State Department.  

Two nights ago, ARD (public TV) went hard on Laschet (CDU Chancellor candidate).  The aim?  Getting him to budge on bringing high numbers of refugees in from Afghanistan, and Laschet went to the commentary that they weren't going to repeat 2015 again (the year of 950-odd thousand migrants).  

Last night?  ZDF (public TV) went hard on Maas (the Foreign Minister).  Their aim?  Getting him to budge on bringing high numbers of refugees in from Afghanistan.  This painful interview went on for about ten minutes, and I felt sorry for Maas in the end.  The journalist with ZDF just wasn't going to accept the 'no'.  

2.  This being near election time.  26 September is the German federal election, and both the CDU/CSU folks and the SPD Party....cannot afford to bring migration or serious numbers of refugees into the situation.  The AfD Party would suddenly have a major issue, and you'd see them go from 10-to-11 percent where they are today.....to probably around 15-to-16 percent....taking votes from both of them.

3.  Why the refugee situation of 2015 still matters today?  In a normal typical year, Germany brings in around 250k (more or less) migrants, immigrants, refugees....per year.  

2014 was the escalation point of the ISIS war, and around 450,000 entered Germany without much control (they just walked up). 2015, the government said originally it was 1.1-million and later downsized to 950k (suggesting duplications in the system).  Again, they walked up.

The capability to handle that many was proven to be a 'joke', and some refugees would heavily criticize the accommodations and slowness of the bureaucratic system devised.  

By the end of 2015, around 8-percent of Germans were very much anti-migrant and voicing their votes via the AfD Party.  While seventy-percent of Germans were still pro-migrant....that left around 20-percent of the German society asking lots of questions....which couldn't be answered by politicians or the news media.  This 20-percent group weren't likely AfD voters but they weren't thrilled with the marginal answers that were given.

4.  Terrorism likely to return?  This got brought up via a interview by Focus with Rolf Tophoven (terrorism expert).  He points out that the Taliban was never really a terror type organization....they seek control of Afghanistan and little beyond that.  It's the satellite organizations that might set up camp there, and then export their terror campaign (if properly funded).  

I should note that Tophoven also brought up the fact that various government agencies were funding projects in Afghanistan and none of them talked among themselves (same issue as in the US and the UK).  So various projects got money from this department, and a week later....it might have been duplicated with money from another department.    

5.  How many Afghans might be in this refugee wave hitting Europe?  It's anyone's guess.  Seehofer (Interior Minister) spoke this past weekend and suggested a minimum number of 300k.  His upper number? 3-million.  Who gave him the reference numbers? Unknown.  

Walking to Germany?  Won't happen this time....everyone has fences up and lots of control throughout all of eastern Europe. 

6.  How many Afghans could Germany bring in?  It's a debatable answer.  In the past, 250k was the generally acceptable number and it was spread out throughout the year.  

If you asked me....they could probably handle 35k to 45k a month.....leading to a year number of around half-a-million.  But then you have to view the asylum folks already sitting in Greece (Syrians, Iraqis), and they probably would expect their 'ticket' first, ahead of the Afghans.  

Adding to this discussion....I'm not suggesting half-a-million a year for several years...I'm kinda just hinting one single doorway for limited period of time, then it ought to close.  

7.  Is this Taliban version (2.0) the same as the 1990s version?  NO.  

If you look around, all new faces.  Lets also be honest....a fair number of the Taliban leadership over the past twenty years....has been wiped out. If you asked intel-people, they'd probably tell you that five different levels of Taliban leadership have come and gone since the 2005-era.  

So these new Taliban folks might be less oppressive?  Well....if you laid out an oppression 'meter' and tried to assign a value....you might only get a 'six' instead of the 1990s version of a 'solid-ten'.

I'm not saying these are Boy Scouts, but if they didn't go to killing people on the streets, or assigning women to be forced into marriage....they might be seen differently.

I hate to use the comparison....but after WW II....we had that expression get created....the 'good Nazis' (it was a myth but it was a believable myth).  Maybe the intention is to create a myth of the 'good Taliban'.  

8.  The drug empire.  Some minor chatter came up over the weekend....that a fair amount of the income for the Taliban will be the opium empire.  

9.  Regular working-class Germans buying into saving/rescuing Afghans?  Both public TV outlets (ARD, ZDF) have a fair amount of Germans who aren't that happy with the TV-media tax, or the propaganda-style reporting that occurs.  So it's not hard for either network to suddenly fall into this pit now.....with public disgruntlement....then muting the news focus, or going to alternate news (N-TV, N-24).

10.  All of this leading back to President Biden.  Well....some German journalists are asking the question....how did this get so screwed up (in a hurry), and it's hard to answer this without reflecting upon the July Q-and-A with President Biden (the 'zero' talk).  He obviously bought into something, and was absolutely sold on the idea that the Taliban could not suddenly become a problem (already by May/June, they were that problem and already pursuing control).  

At the very minimum.....some of his advisers were not focused or grasping the developing mess.  At this point, no one has been fired, and they continue to advise him even now.  So if I were a Chancellor....I'd regard virtually everything spoken by the White House staff/State Department....to be suspect, and disregard half of what is spoken. 

11.  Low point for Merkel?  With the election on 26 September....Merkel would have quietly walked out a week later, and felt pretty good over the past sixteen years.  This 'mess' is probably one of the top three low-points, and she can't do much to resolve the asylum/refugee business.

This continual chatter of getting a EU-policy over migrants and refugees?  Seven years of this chatter, and it goes nowhere.  But it gives the Chancellor a chance to deflect all discussions on more refugees.