I read through Focus this afternoon....there's a CDU Bundestag member who openly said that candidate Laschet (their Chancellor candidate for the party) has to resign from the election if the numbers don't improve in 2 weeks.
Blunt? Well....it'd be a event that has never occurred in German politics.
The election? 26 September.
The current trend? Most polls will show since June....a point-down almost every ten days. The CDU is regarded as only 2 points ahead of the SPD, and if you figure the time remaining....I'd suggest that the SPD ought to be able to win (maybe by 3 points).
Naturally, you'd ask....if the guy did resign, could they appoint a new candidate ASAP? Well....the party couldn't, but the executive council of the party could. Their likely choice? They would grumble but likely pick Soder (Premier-President of Bavaria).
What would happen under that scenario? Within 7 days, I'd suggest a 4-point rebound, and by the 26th of September......a 10-point margin over the SPD.
But would Laschet do this? I'd give a 95-percent chance of him NOT quitting.
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