Well....if you view the five big companies that have a history.....since 1 August, the polls give a lead of 1 to 9 points to the CDU.
One of the poll groups used only a group of 1,252 folks.....another poll group used as many as 2,509 folks.
The fact that the numbers vary this much? This is one of the reasons why you can't attach yourself that much to the polling.
Date of the election? 26 September, so there's plenty of time to whittle the CDU numbers down, and trigger a win by the SPD. The one trend that you do notice....since June, the SPD has been on a gain-trend, while the CDU has been on a downward slope. The Greens? They apparently maxed out in May, and have been losing a point every couple of weeks.
Why the up and down trends?
I'll give you two basic parts to this story:
1. As much as the Green Party looked great in the fall of 2020....the anticipated pick of Robert Habeck....never occurred. Annalena Baerbock got the nod instead (with the suggestion that she was more animated and appreciated by the public....so the internal polls suggest). Baerbock's plagiarism problems came up over a new book, and she did a poor job in clearing the accusations.
2. The CDU's downward trend came because of the summer party meeting cancelled (it was supposed to pick a new party 'boss' when AKK said she'd step). This party 'boss' meeting came in the fall....with Laschet picked, and the Chancellor selection process which came later....didn't allow a full party meeting (an executive committee ended up picking Laschet).
So things would be going in a fairly interesting way....if this were an election with Soder (CDU), Habeck (Greens) and Scholz (SPD). Soder and Habeck would likely be nearing 60 percent on combined numbers, and the SPD Party would probably still be around 13-percent. But that's not the way that this election proceeded.
No comments:
Post a Comment