A 3-G Society?

 As of today (23rd of August), the '3G' rule is in effect in Germany, over Covid-19.  The rule?  A list of business operations are given by the government, and if you are one of these....no one can enter the facility unless they meet one of the three exceptions: (1) Vaccinated, (2) Recovered, or (3) Tested in the past 24 hours (quickie-tests) or 48 hours (PCR test, the more expensive type).

The locations we are talking about?

Banks, casinos, dance-halls, nail salons, hair shops, nursing homes, hospitals, fitness centers, tattoo shops, bars, pubs, restaurants, hotels, discos, theaters, concerts, air travel, or driving school.

As long as the incidence rate is 35 or higher in your local area....that's the rule.

What happens next?

I would suggest five things:

1.  The use of the 'free' tests at the quick-centers will bump up quickly.  Some people might be using them five times a week.  In about two months, the 'free' tests are supposed to end (gov't orders).  What happens after that point is an unknown.

2.  If you live in an area where the rate is 35 or higher, but 22 km away....is a town where the rate is 25...well, where do you think you will be doing your business?  Your banking, your partying at a pub, your use of a tattoo shop?  I'll go and predict that urban areas see a massive decline in business within four weeks.  Organizations will start to publicize a under-35 town and get more business generated.

3.  Just in general.....non-vax folks will just refuse to spend their money for a period of time.  You will start to have bars, restaurants and nightclubs around Frankfurt and Hamburg which yank on the chain of the local mayor....they've lost 30-percent of their profit base.  They openly tell the politicians that less income....means LESS tax revenue.

4.  At some around the end of September, the various state governments will start to admit that the 'gifted' crowd (vax-folks) are getting Covid inside of theaters, pubs, bars and discos.  A vax-guy will pass it to another vax-guy....even though the rules indicated this was not going to happen.  How you explain this to the public?  It might be curious to watch this unfold.

5.  Finally, at some point after Christmas....I expect the 3G rule to be taken apart, and modified or discarded entirely.  The free-testing business?  It might start up entirely.  The way you arrive at the infection rate?  That might be brought under extreme review and questions asked.  

Silly rule?  I wouldn't say that.  They have to do something, and in a closed-in group of politicians.....they believe that 3G will trigger another 10-to-20 percent of society to get vaccinated.  The implication of people just holding their cash and refusing to spend money on commerce?  Well....it might shock politicians that people would think that way.  Certainly, you don't want half the bars in Frankfurt to shutdown because their client/customer base is sitting in a park with other non-vax clients....sipping off beer they bought via a grocery.