Yesterday (Tuesday), a draft copy of the new Covid 'standard' got public attention. Focus carried one of the better detailed stories.
For weeks, they've been talking about the 'incidence rate' which is the 'gold-standard' in Germany for forcing ban-rules upon the public.
To be kinda honest, with two-thirds of the public vaccinated.....they need to show a change (as if things are better).
So the 'hospitalization rate' will now be introduced. It doesn't matter how many have Covid....it's the question if it's bad enough to end up in the hospital, per 100,000 people.
The current rate per 100,000....if you were curious? 1.38 per 100k people.
If you used past numbers....how BAD did it get? The government says between 10 and 12.
In the mind of the 'change-people'.....the vaccination has to lead onto better (lesser) numbers in the end.
If you asked me to buy into this new formula? I'd say numbers of some type have to be used, and I don't care how you arrive at the magic numbers. Will there be odd outcomes? Well....you could be sitting in a particular state (say Thuringia, in the east) and they have a great hospitalization rate of 2.5 in the midst of really bad numbers in Bavaria (say 6.5).....while if you used to the old method of regular incidence....they were both even at 125. You'd say that it's just odd.....same people getting Covid but in one state.....fewer people end up in the hospital for some odd and unexplained reason.
How long will this hospitalization rate stay around? If I were betting....I'd say this goes away by spring 2022, and another mathematical formula will be figured out by then.
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