A lot has happened over the past week, and it's worth a few moments to think about the path of things, and consequences:
1. Blasting of the Chancellor and the cabinet. A lot of criticism has been dumped on the Chancellor, the Foreign Minister (Maas, SPD), and the Defense Minister (AKK).
The journalists want to know how they got this so wrong, and government's position is....well....it just happened. It would appear (to me) that they don't want to admit that their sole source of information and understanding was the Biden White House and the US State Department.
Two nights ago, ARD (public TV) went hard on Laschet (CDU Chancellor candidate). The aim? Getting him to budge on bringing high numbers of refugees in from Afghanistan, and Laschet went to the commentary that they weren't going to repeat 2015 again (the year of 950-odd thousand migrants).
Last night? ZDF (public TV) went hard on Maas (the Foreign Minister). Their aim? Getting him to budge on bringing high numbers of refugees in from Afghanistan. This painful interview went on for about ten minutes, and I felt sorry for Maas in the end. The journalist with ZDF just wasn't going to accept the 'no'.
2. This being near election time. 26 September is the German federal election, and both the CDU/CSU folks and the SPD Party....cannot afford to bring migration or serious numbers of refugees into the situation. The AfD Party would suddenly have a major issue, and you'd see them go from 10-to-11 percent where they are today.....to probably around 15-to-16 percent....taking votes from both of them.
3. Why the refugee situation of 2015 still matters today? In a normal typical year, Germany brings in around 250k (more or less) migrants, immigrants, refugees....per year.
2014 was the escalation point of the ISIS war, and around 450,000 entered Germany without much control (they just walked up). 2015, the government said originally it was 1.1-million and later downsized to 950k (suggesting duplications in the system). Again, they walked up.
The capability to handle that many was proven to be a 'joke', and some refugees would heavily criticize the accommodations and slowness of the bureaucratic system devised.
By the end of 2015, around 8-percent of Germans were very much anti-migrant and voicing their votes via the AfD Party. While seventy-percent of Germans were still pro-migrant....that left around 20-percent of the German society asking lots of questions....which couldn't be answered by politicians or the news media. This 20-percent group weren't likely AfD voters but they weren't thrilled with the marginal answers that were given.
4. Terrorism likely to return? This got brought up via a interview by Focus with Rolf Tophoven (terrorism expert). He points out that the Taliban was never really a terror type organization....they seek control of Afghanistan and little beyond that. It's the satellite organizations that might set up camp there, and then export their terror campaign (if properly funded).
I should note that Tophoven also brought up the fact that various government agencies were funding projects in Afghanistan and none of them talked among themselves (same issue as in the US and the UK). So various projects got money from this department, and a week later....it might have been duplicated with money from another department.
5. How many Afghans might be in this refugee wave hitting Europe? It's anyone's guess. Seehofer (Interior Minister) spoke this past weekend and suggested a minimum number of 300k. His upper number? 3-million. Who gave him the reference numbers? Unknown.
Walking to Germany? Won't happen this time....everyone has fences up and lots of control throughout all of eastern Europe.
6. How many Afghans could Germany bring in? It's a debatable answer. In the past, 250k was the generally acceptable number and it was spread out throughout the year.
If you asked me....they could probably handle 35k to 45k a month.....leading to a year number of around half-a-million. But then you have to view the asylum folks already sitting in Greece (Syrians, Iraqis), and they probably would expect their 'ticket' first, ahead of the Afghans.
Adding to this discussion....I'm not suggesting half-a-million a year for several years...I'm kinda just hinting one single doorway for limited period of time, then it ought to close.
7. Is this Taliban version (2.0) the same as the 1990s version? NO.
If you look around, all new faces. Lets also be honest....a fair number of the Taliban leadership over the past twenty years....has been wiped out. If you asked intel-people, they'd probably tell you that five different levels of Taliban leadership have come and gone since the 2005-era.
So these new Taliban folks might be less oppressive? Well....if you laid out an oppression 'meter' and tried to assign a value....you might only get a 'six' instead of the 1990s version of a 'solid-ten'.
I'm not saying these are Boy Scouts, but if they didn't go to killing people on the streets, or assigning women to be forced into marriage....they might be seen differently.
I hate to use the comparison....but after WW II....we had that expression get created....the 'good Nazis' (it was a myth but it was a believable myth). Maybe the intention is to create a myth of the 'good Taliban'.
8. The drug empire. Some minor chatter came up over the weekend....that a fair amount of the income for the Taliban will be the opium empire.
9. Regular working-class Germans buying into saving/rescuing Afghans? Both public TV outlets (ARD, ZDF) have a fair amount of Germans who aren't that happy with the TV-media tax, or the propaganda-style reporting that occurs. So it's not hard for either network to suddenly fall into this pit now.....with public disgruntlement....then muting the news focus, or going to alternate news (N-TV, N-24).
10. All of this leading back to President Biden. Well....some German journalists are asking the question....how did this get so screwed up (in a hurry), and it's hard to answer this without reflecting upon the July Q-and-A with President Biden (the 'zero' talk). He obviously bought into something, and was absolutely sold on the idea that the Taliban could not suddenly become a problem (already by May/June, they were that problem and already pursuing control).
At the very minimum.....some of his advisers were not focused or grasping the developing mess. At this point, no one has been fired, and they continue to advise him even now. So if I were a Chancellor....I'd regard virtually everything spoken by the White House staff/State Department....to be suspect, and disregard half of what is spoken.
11. Low point for Merkel? With the election on 26 September....Merkel would have quietly walked out a week later, and felt pretty good over the past sixteen years. This 'mess' is probably one of the top three low-points, and she can't do much to resolve the asylum/refugee business.
This continual chatter of getting a EU-policy over migrants and refugees? Seven years of this chatter, and it goes nowhere. But it gives the Chancellor a chance to deflect all discussions on more refugees.
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