Wednesday, March 2, 2022

Will The Russians Ever Get Their Frozen Assets Back?

 I've seen this discussion pick up over the past 24 hours.  A number of Russians (and Chinese) say you can't really suggest that the money will be 'taken'....it would destroy confidence in the western markets.

The problem here....with the Putin-drama unfolding, I don't see the assets being unfrozen in 2022 (or for that matter 2023).  

With damages mounting in the Ukraine, I think some worldwide drama will play out where various countries mount a legal understanding....that someone will add up the total damages and suggest using the frozen assets (into the tens of billions) to pay for 'damages'.

Total destruction of the Russian economy?  Someone used that phrase yesterday (another 'Doctor Doom' character).  

I would argue that the frozen funds likely to fall into this money pit....would be cash held by the Russian government itself, and the Oligarch folks. The average well-to-do Russian might not have his assets seized, and in this scenario.....'total destruction' would not be the correct phrase to use.

But this would put Russia into a pretty big mess.  They couldn't pay the police, or buy more weapons, or pave roads, or purchase new 50-million Euro yachts.  

Putting Russia into the status of a Venezuela-like state?  It's a funny suggestion but I could see people flying into Russia in three years....finding nothing much works, and identifying Moscow as being 'Caracas-like'.  

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