German Federal Election: 2021

 1.  Who are the primary candidates?

The smoke hasn't totally cleared, but from the three main parties (CDU, SPD, and Greens)....the candidates appear to be Habeck (Greens), Scholz (SPD), and Soder (CDU-CSU).

The lesser parties?  FDP, Linke and AfD?  Don't really count on them to get much traction.  

2.  Present numbers?

The CDU-CSU, in national polling, will be able to swing near 30-percent.  The Greens are very motivated and have taken a fair number of voters away from the SPD over the past couple of years....one might say their national polling would be around 20-to-24 percent. The SPD, in recent polling....are marginally doing 15-percent.  Right now, even if the CDU-CSU won the election.....the idea of a partnership with the SPD....means absolutely nothing because the SPD would not have the votes to reach the 50-percent level.  

3.  Top topics of this election?

Well....I would suggest three topics:

- Unemployment and economic problems for major companies because of Covid-19.  One might expect the unemployment rate by the fall of 2021 to be a minimum of 8-percent.

- Covid-19 issues.  Basically the ban and rule game has hit the point where a quarter of the population area skeptical and gotten tired of the limits. It'll only increase in 2021.

- Save-the-world.  The environmental issues will be pushed to a great extent.

4.  Affect of AfD lessened in this election?

If you gauge the amount of repair work by the Merkel coalition over the past four years, the lack of EU accomplishments on asylum, and the general mode of the country....I would suggest that the AfD has hit it's peak and probably won't go beyond 9-to-10 percent in this election.

However, if the AfD were to become big skeptics of the Covid-19 ban rules, it is conceivable that they might push themselves back up into the 15-percent level of voting results.  

5.  The odds of the Greens being a partner under the CDU-CSU in 2021 (in terms of joining a coalition situation)?

Right now, I'd give it a 90-percent chance of happening.  With that, a number of CDU folks are going to have a sour-taste over this idea, and look for some other option on voting.  It won't be a big number, but I would speculate a minimum of five-percent of normal CDU-CSU voters simply won't be agreeable to this type of situation.

6.  Any sentiment left for Chancellor Merkel?

No.  I think more than 50-percent of the public is ready for a new Chancellor and a new path for the future.  It doesn't mean much will really change....just that a different landscape will exist in their minds.