Thursday, October 1, 2020

Regular Death Versus Covid-19 Death

 There's a curious statement on statistics that came out today, via the head of the Frankfurt-City Health Department.  The Berlin Zeitung discusses this statement and it begs questions.

So the Professor (Gottschalk) says in a blunt way....while agreeing that there is a serious increase in the number of admission reports (to hospitals)....there are now fewer serious illnesses with the admissions.

Then he goes onto a key point....that death rates from the past....with flu and heat waves (something of a curious element in Germany over the past twenty years)....are more of a worrisome nature, than Covid-19.

In simple terms, he's not buying into the national strategy that the RKI folks (advising the government) is the best way forward.

The term of use here?  'Excess mortality'.  Numbers for infection or for Covid-deaths....ought to be higher.  The factual data which the government releases....doesn't demonstrate the mortality level needed for the present situation.

Around a month ago, I saw a US news piece which discussed the same issue....mortality levels ought to be higher, and they simply don't exist.  At the time, some believed that fewer people did elective surgery in the US and put themselves at risk in the spring and summer of 2020....with increased death numbers that should have occurred.

A lot of this discussion also goes around to second issues....which lay out the fact that a fair number of people (including Germans) suffer from heart conditions, COPD, or diabetes later in life, and the secondary issues are like 'anchors', upon Covid-infected individuals.  

The health professional here readily admits....Covid is serious.  But if you do the crunching of the numbers....a serious flu season or month-long heat-wave in the midst of summer will do more damage to society than Covid-19.  For older Germans who remember the summer of 2003....this heat-wave topic brings up a lot of frustrations and memories.  I should note that 14,000 French died that summer from heat related issues.  Here in Germany presently, we've yet to cross the 10,000 death count for the nation (9,571 dead as of today).

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