Chancellor Race Pretty Screwed Up

 Forsa is a big-name polling group in Germany, and generally....I'd say they are highly reliable on things.

I noticed today....via N-24 news....Forsa did a survey, and the CDU's Laschet is generally regarded now as the third-place guy for Chancellor.

The CDU may still be ahead as a party, but the general public would prefer to have the SPD's Scholz as Chancellor.  The Green Party with Baerbock?  2nd place on the Chancellor list.  So sits Laschet....generally/marginally supported by the public.

N-24 asked the question if this was Soder (CSU's Premier-President for Bavaria)?  That suggestion totally changed the outlook of the public.  

So why isn't Soder there?  It's about a Covid situation and a funny path to a political meeting.

Back in the fall of 2020, there was supposed to be a big meeting of party membership.  Because of Covid fears....the executive committee of the CDU-CSU group decided against this meeting.  At the very end of 2020, an executive membership meeting occurred (roughly 40 to 50 members).  

These people voted...NOT the true membership group.

The emphasis of the executive group?  They wanted a Merkel-clone, which Soder was not.

If you'd walked around and polled the general public at the time....the vast majority (probably up to around two-thirds of the public....expected Soder to be the candidate.  The executive committee said no....Laschet is the pick.

Soder, in my humble opinion....stood there in shock.  He figured it was either himself or Merz at the final pick.  To pick Laschet?  It didn't make sense.

So we sit here now....eight months later, and Soder is just standing there shaking his head in interviews.  Week by week....Laschet loses another point here and there.  

If you ask me today if it's possible for the Greens with Baerbock to win....I'd say it's reaching a 50-50 point.  Even with the SPD's Scholz, it's possible that they could pick up five points over the remaining weeks.

Blame to dump on the executive committee of the CDU?  Yeah....if they lose this....I'd ask each member to resign and go home.  They devised an election to lose. 

So to the final scenario here....is it possible that the CDU marginally wins and the party convenes to ask another figure assume the Chancellorship?  It's a weird situation that could occur, but it's a one chance out of a hundred situation.