One of the lesser political parties in Germany (the FDP) stood up this weekend and asked the question....when building up the Covid-incidence rate and inflecting shutdowns....what if you built a 'index' and included hospital admissions for Covid?
It's a interesting topic and if you browse around....rarely does one ever find a relationship of infected people to hospitalization people. There was one study which I came to and the data is interesting. It's from OurWorldinData.Org
So you gaze at Germany for 2020, and it stays flat for most of the year until mid-October. Then it takes off between 2k and 4k per day in the hospital. Around May of 2021....it levels back off to below a thousand in the hospital per day.
The US, back in January of 2021? It was sitting at around 116k sitting in the hospital.
What the FDP is positioning for discussion....is the idea that various treatments have been put into effect, and that the vast majority of people with Covid infection....never end up at the hospital. Germany here in the past week, if you use the data from the study? Roughly 250 people in the hospital situation because of Covid....the rest sit at home.
Will the coalition government (CDU-CSU-SPD) pick up this item for consideration? Right now....before the election? No. My humble guess is that it'll be openly discussed in October and probably accepted (with a new Chancellor/gov't). I might even suggest five or six ideas for an index, and that harsh regulations put into place in December of 2020....would be avoided.
A curious note, I pulled up the Iceland numbers. If you gaze at 25 October 2020.....they were at the peak for Covid hospitalizations....50 total for that day. By late November? They were down to four people being hospitalized. Back in late April, they peaked at five people (for 2021) being hospitalized for Covid. Just luck? No. I would suggest if you asked doctors there, they developed a couple of drug and handling procedures, which lessened the serious nature of Covid.
No comments:
Post a Comment