What Happens If You Forbid 30-Percent of the German Public From Participation?

 The chatter this weekend....if you look over political hype....politicians are talking of the idea to shut down access to in-door cafes, in-door restaurants, concerts, in-door bars, and provide no-free Covid-testing (after late September).  The idea is....you'd force the 30-percent of German society (currently unmotivated for the vaccination) into a corner.

I sat and pondered over this implication.

Right now, out-door activities exist to the point where non-vax'ers would still participate and be part of the economy.  Around early October, the temperature would shift, and in-door business would matter.

What if the 30-percent took their money and refused to participate?  They didn't use restaurants unless it was fast-food pick-up....or they refused to use pubs and bars....or they told the concert/show event planners to 'screw-off'.

Personally, I think in less than 30 days.....business owners would report a 25-to-35 percent decrease in business earnings, and they'd warn the tax-revenue folks that whatever they felt was normal income/taxation.....the target was going to be missed.  

If you asked the tax-revenue folks about their 'worries'.....thirty days of a downward shift wouldn't amount to much of a big deal.  A whole second month with missing tax-revenue?  That's probably the point that a Finanzamt Minister would ask for a special meeting to chat with all the Ministers and the Chancellor (this would be after the new government forms, and the replacement for Merkel arrives). But I wouldn't expect them to really react (other than talking about it).

Now, at the 4th month of the trend?  Yeah....that's probably point where the Finanzamt has to project the budget, and cut expenses.  

The non-vax crowd at this point....has a ace or two that puts the government in a difficult point.

The other thing I'll point out....lets say the in-door world settles into operations with only vaccinated people being served, and these customers herd themselves into testing facilities to show they are getting Covid in various numbers.  Does the government then go and admit that in-door business operations is now a risk...even with vax-people?  Do you shut down restaurants, bars, pubs and cafes for two or three months (like last winter)?  Frankly, I don't see how the government could admit this in public....without losing a ton of public confidence.

So as this plays out, I'll predict three things:

1.  A 'herd' symbol will start to be used by the anti-vax crowd, and become stickers on posts, and signs.  'We are the herd' will end up being used a good bit.  

2.  Business owners will generally reject the government's position....saying they have no enthusiasm left in them for losing income.

3.  This whole position played by the government is utterly dependent upon the vax business working.  If you end up by spring of 2022 with 500,000 vaccinated Germans getting the virus....this argument/solution becomes childish.  

So, settle back and prepare for an interesting economics 'show'.