To stand back and examine the Dutch farmer demonstrations....you have go and revisit a 1991 mandate handed down by the EU. You can read it, if you wish....here.
In simple terms....the EU concluded studies and said there was a fair amount of pollution existing from farm enterprises, which used nitrate. Four measures were noted: "Limiting inorganic Nitrate fertilizer application to crop requirements, limiting organic manure applications, seasonal restrictions on the application of slurry, manure sand sludge on sandy and shallow soils, and maintenance of farm records that encompass cropping, livestock numbers and fertilizer management.
It would appear that some willing nature existed in the first decade after this...by the farming community...to control nitrate use. That was probably the peak of friendly cooperation.
Utrecht University published a report (1 Jun 2022) and they spoke to the new urgency and regulations: "The long-term use of fertilizers in industrialized agriculture and the resulting build-up of nitrogen and phosphorus in the environment are contributing to widespread biodiversity loss and ecosystem disruption across Europe."
So what the Dutch government jumped into....a 2030 mandate....cut all current nitrogen usage by 20-percent.
The term 'sustainable agricultural practices' pops out a good bit as you read various commentary on the issue.
In a nutshell....since WW II....a lot of farmers across Europe (not just the Netherlands) developed business plans...got into technology, and enjoyed business growth.
Nitrate was a part of the effort. One can argue 'control' had to be applied at some point, but once you walk into this situation....less production starts to occur. Someone has to suffer. A dairy that has 250 cows, and handles their own feed situation....won't be able produce at this level by 2030. Depending on the size of the farm....you might be only operating with 200 cows in the end....less cows, means less profit (less tax revenue).
Nowhere in the Dutch mandate handed out....or the 1991 EU mandate....does it shape up any 'pain or suffering' by the farm community.
If this all goes forward in 2030? There's simply not been a reasonable effort to predict the economic outcome. That's the one odd aspect I've noted in reading across this.
You would think the tax revenue arm of the Dutch government would be talking and examining the issue.
If you said that 10-percent of farms would not exist at that point? It's roughly 11,000 farms in the Netherlands today....so you'd be talking about 1,100 going away. The product damage? Cheese and milk production? They would have to be hit pretty hard, but no one seems to openly discuss that.
Going past 10-percent? It's anyone's guess.
So, this is a fairly dynamic situation going on, and there's likely to be a governmental crisis developing (probably a collapse of the current coalition there). But the bigger question....the same EU directive affects the rest of Europe. Will you see a collapse of coalitions across Europe, just over this nitrate issue and farms?
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