The War Chatter

 Three observations:

1.  This week, the Brit Defense Ministry came out and suggested (based on photos and various reviews).....the Russian Conscripts are going into battle with outdated and old equipment.  

The Conscripts themselves?  I doubt that they grasp this, but the Captains and Commanders probably do.  It's not an enticing thing to be sitting there on day 130 of the war....to realize your military has never put any effort or revenue into sustaining the force.  

How much was siphoned off for corruption?  Anyone's guess, but everyone was scheming in some way to get a 'chunk' of the money.  

If you were looking for the top reason that Russia can never win the war.....I'd say the equipment issue is probably number one.

2.  This is a poster which started to appear around Russia this week.  It's basically a recruitment poster for the Army.

I noted the translation provided over at Twitter....it basically says don't be a loser or alcoholic by going off to college.  The suggestion of college causing depression?  Yeah, it's there too.

So, the suggestion here is that a period of a year or two in the Army will prevent you from being a depressed loser or becoming an alcoholic.  

I sat amused over the poster.  It's juvenile-thinking at best.  

Convincing anyone much to go and volunteer?  No.  

But it makes one wonder....how close to a crisis in Army manpower are they....to go and make up a recruitment poster like this?  

3.  So to the final subject....the arrival of the French/US weapons which will give long-range capability to the Ukrainian Army.

Here's the view....if you were a Russian unit of 500 men (20 aging tanks) at X-town, and holding this comfortably......you rely upon a logistics platform/base about 100 km safely back away from the front.  There's probably a delivery every three to four days of food/ammo/fuel. 

One day.....the Ukrainians aim at the logistics depot (maybe even across into Russian lands), and destroy the base.  

Your delivery to your outpost never arrives.  The commander calls up General X.  General X has no idea when a resupply can occur.  Seven days into this chaotic period....food is running short....with nothing left to seize in the local area.  Things get tense.  On the 10th day.....someone from the Conscripts shoots the Commander.  

Around the 12th day, the new temp Commander arrives and gets enough fuel food delivered....to start a evacuation or retreat.  Across the eastern front....a dozen of these outposts start to collapse....all because of a failed logistical situation.  In a matter of two months....about half of what the Russians captured....is back in Ukrainian hands.

I would suggest by the end of September....that's likely the next problem for Putin's strategy to overcome.