Fracking?

 This weekend, if you watch both public/commercial German news....lot of hype going on over fracking being possibly allowed in Germany (forbidden since 2016).

I'll reference part of this discussion over to a N-TV news piece.

So what this goes around to....is energy creation in Germany (for the grid)....which leads back to a decision made thirty-odd years ago.  

As of 2020, 12-percent of the German national grid is provided by 'clean' natural gas......not the evil nuclear or coal-powered plants.  Why natural gas was considered clean?  It was more of a environmental cause that the government went to, and kept repeating for the public.

If you asked any German politician how much of the 12-percent was clean (not fracked).....via Russia?  They'd mostly grin and shake their heads.  They have no idea.  It might be 1-percent.  It might be 50-percent.  It might be 100-percent.  

This is where the government starts to look like an idiot....where foreign procured fracked natural gas is OK, but German produced natural gas is evil.

In recent days....Lower Saxony's PM (Weil, CDU) has picked up the subject and agreed....if you approved fracking in Germany.....none of this emergency would exist.

Presently?  It's impossible to turn on fracking, without a national discussion, and it'd take a minimum of a year to really show results and prevent an emergency in the fall of 2023.

What Bavaria's Soder (the PM) has said?  He's asking if new methods (cleaner) for fracking exists, and if so.....why can't fracking occur?

My humble view?  You can't open the discussion unless you put new fracking methods on the table, and if some clean method exists.....then this shouldn't take more than a week of discussion to approve.

Here's the thing....if you had your own inventory....the price would drop like a rock over a one-month period.  It wouldn't shock me if the typical yearly bill....with pure German natural gas....dropped by 50-percent.  

The two sections of Germany with natural gas potential?  Lower Saxony and Baden-Wurttemberg.  Politically divided?  Lower Saxony is led by the CDU Party, with B-W led by the Green Party.  

What I believe will happen?  Several discussions about fracking will occur, with newer methods laid upon the table.  Around the end of the year.....as shortages start to be observed....it will be agreed upon to start fracking in 2023 (probably the spring), but you won't see any real results in 2023 (likely to be early 2024 before the numbers are shown).  

It's not the best answer....but considering the problems with Russia will continue for the decades to come.....you have to reset the dynamics.