I've watched around five to six Dutch farmer interviews since Monday....talking over their protest, the government action, and their scenario how the future goes.
One of their key points surrounds the end of probably a quarter of Dutch farms (there's different news groups who've examined this angle).
What really transpires here....in simple language...you run x-farm, with y-amount of production (milk, grain, etc). Without the nitrogen add-in......you can't produce the same level of agricultural products, so you will produce less products in the end.
The business plan side of this? You are looking at a European-wide situation over the past decades (since WW II)....where science and technology have walked in and given farmers (not just the Dutch guys) a plus-up. You can walk up to German farmer....ask the business plan angle, and he'll lay out what he's got going on, the production level in a normal year, how bad years affect him, and the general tax revenue situation.
It's not rocket science, but it's not a hit-and-miss situation where you can cut 10-percent of your production level, without harming profit or tax production.
I've been across the Dutch border....probably a dozen times in my life. I've vacationed in Amsterdam, Den Hague, Leiden, and Rotterdam. On my list of favorite places to visit....it ranks in the top three. You generally feel safe....you can easily sip a beer under a tree in mid-summer, and the landscape is fantastic. My only general negative is zero taste food. I should emphasize....the railway works there....probably even better than the Germans run their system.
So to the topic of farm property....this is one of the odd things. As you walk to the end of a suburban area.....it's an abrupt end, and you are in the midst of a farming district. Yes, there's a paved trail likely existing, and leads to the next village. It's quiet.....cattle grazing, and some crops growing.
Urban areas in growth (expanding the city limits)? No.....you'd have to go and acquire more property for this to occur, and farmers just don't sell their property (it tends to pass down to the son or daughter).
I would imagine that between real estate developers and a handful of bureaucrats in each district....there's probably over 300 towns or villages that would be agreeable to some method where farmers have to sell out. A farm here and there....in their minds....wouldn't be a big deal to lose. If you did this nationally? You might be talking about a couple hundred farms that dissolve away.
The problem I see....virtually every single farmer would be forced into a lower production scale. Nationally? As of 2020....it was around 11,000 farms existing in the Netherlands. If you placed a minimum of 10-percent cut of production? It's anyone's guess but unless you bought the farmland coming up for sale and enlarged your acreage....that's about the only way to keep producing the same level....you had before.
Is this just a Dutch problem? No....the mandate is a EU situation, and every single EU country will have the problem develop. It's just the Netherlands at the lead point at this moment.
So you ought to turn at this point and start to ask about yourself....the consumer....in the middle of this development.
Maybe there is some science behind the nitrogen discussion. If so, then what?
When the Germans said the coal industry was mandated to end.....the political parties came to grasp the consequences and how much turmoil would erupt. So they sat at a table to discuss the mandate, and how to work through it. Roughly 30-billlion Euro was part on the table to cover the consequences for the industry dissolving. It was the right thing...also the most costly consequence.
In this farmer scenario....if farms produce a quarter less in the end....how will consumers fare? Milk likely to escalate in price? Perhaps 30 percent to 50 percent more? Would you start paying 1 Euro per egg? Would cheese be a premium product?
Where this leads onto? Unknown....but suggestion now of a farmer demonstration failing a government, and triggering a new election? It's openly discussed.
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