Well, it depends on three elements:
1. How severe the winter is.
I would normally classify winters as artic-like, medium and moderate. This past winter was pretty moderate except for about ten days (at least in central Germany). On the artic-like? I would use the 1978 winter as an example, and suggest that one year out of every ten is pretty bad....but one year out of every 25....is like the 1978 period of ice and snow.
2. The logical mindset of Putin and if he goes for natural gas flowing....being restricted to some degree....or cutting it off entirely.
3. The cost factor.
This is a case where people realize the cost is three times what it was in 2019, and cut the flow themselves.....keeping the indoor temperature closer to 15 C (59 F).
So you could evaluate all three, and get a super great outcome..
You could also evaluate all three, and get the worst possible outcome.
The possibility of civil unrest? I would go and suggest under the extremely bad outcome....this would be a frustrating period for people to settle back and 'take-it'.
If I were predicting this? I'd say it's somewhere in the middle.
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