The Heater Scenario

 This scenario got laid out by Focus today and it's worth a moment think about the implications in Germany.

So with the natural gas chatter going on, and the threat of a government mandate to limit home heating to 19C, something odd has started up.

If you go to a German hardware store....looking for space heaters....it's bare.  I noticed that a month ago in my regional hardware shop.  Reason?  Folks are figuring they won't have the chance to heat the home with natural gas (for the furnance).....so they intend to have a couple of space heaters in the home.  

In my house....I run with a natural gas furnace, and a radiator in each room. I have one single space heater (for 70 sq meters)....for the bathroom.  If  you asked me about heating....I'd say it runs for about 30 minutes per day (usually during winter evening when you want to shower).  In the basement, because of past issues....I have four additional space heaters, which have been used about three times over the past dozen years (problems with the house system triggered their use).

So here's the thing....the government now believes people will comply with the mandate for less heat by natural gas, but augment it by having conventional heaters in various rooms.  So for a house with 2 x bedrooms, a kitchen, a living and a bath.....you might be talking about five of these.  

If you ran the five for 12 hours a day....with less heat from natural gas furnace?  Well....it'd draw power off the grid, and nationally....some people now believe the grid would NOT be able to support the demand.  A cost factor too?  Well....lets discuss this, and just suggest that if you ran the five daily.....for 12 hours....you are adding to your yearly electrical bill by a minimum of 2,000 Euro.  If you went entirely by this method?  Focus says the amount would total up around 3,400 Euro.

We come to this government mandated stress-test of the grid, and what might come out of this. 

You won't know the test results until probably the end of August to the beginning of September.  

My humble view is that the engineers will just say that the grid wasn't built to handle this demand....unless you flipped the three nuke plants to close in December.....back to full status, and then add the three nuke plants closed in 2021 also into the mix.  

In simple terms....there's a national failure of the grid unless you fix the natural gas crisis with Russia, or accept nuke power.

I also think that the long-term view (for the next 10 years).....will require the six nuclear plants, and a re-visit of accepting nuke power or coal power....for the long-term.  

For the SPD and Green Parties?  Well....they have to fall upon their sword and admit a lot of mistakes in their past strategy, and for a quarter of their voters....I would suggest this is a bitter pill to swallow.  

FYI, do I believe my fuse box and house-wiring can handle five heavy-duty conventional heaters?  No.  At best....maybe two lite-units, and one heavy-duty heater is my limit.

Looking around the village....I'd suggest that more than half the houses have a wattage limit, and there's going to be a lot of electrical issues (possibly fires) brewing this winter.