Twitter

 N-TV (commercial German news) carried an update to the Elon Musk-Twitter business.  Germans lightly follow this.....if you asked a hundred to comment...the majority know enough to fill one single line of text.  

The update?  We are down to the last part of the deal....if the fake accounts are 'X' or if they exceed 'X'.  Twitter has always suggested that five-percent of the accounts are fake.

Musk and his financial backers?  They have always said if it really is 'X' (five-percent)....then the deal will happen.

General belief at this point?  The fake accounts are probably over 5-percent.  About a month ago.....I viewed a business report which suggested worldwide....the fake accounts might be up around 15-percent.  Factual?  Well....you can't really say or prove much.

If Elon halts the sale?  On paper, he agreed to pay them 1-billion dollars.

I sat and pondered upon this.....today, the stock price is at $38.79 (way down from mid-50 range from 2 months ago). 

What really happens if a deal fails, and Twitter gets 1-billion? Would they go and pay each share-holder from the 1-billion pot of money, or just hand out bonuses for VIP employees?   The right thing to do....is to pay share-holders from the 1-billion.  The absolute wrong thing to do is only pay out half-the-pot to share-holders, and bonus-up everyone within the company.

The rate here?  $1.30 per share would be the rough amount.

But does Twitter become a marginalized company after all of this?  I believe the SEC, within 3 years....will revisit this whole fake account dynamic, and some massive investigation will fall into play.  They will have to pay some billion-plus fine if all of this is proven, and maybe that Elon Musk billion would be helpful to hold onto....to cover their stupidity.  

I should also note for this scenario....whoever is CEO....will be dragged up for some public criticism.  

Oh, for Elon's tax business for 2022?  Well....the billion is a loss, and IRS must accept that for some type of credit.