How Will The Natural Gas Crisis Play Out Politicially?

 Well....there are only two state elections for 2023, and if everything 'goes-to-hell-in-a-handbasket'.....then the momentary affect centers on those two elections.  Locations?  State of Hessen and Bavaria.  Both set for the September/October period.

Which parties could end up in a heavy loss situation for those two states?  SPD and Green parties.

But here is the thing....presently...the CSU is clearly in the front in Bavaria, and I'd give pretty good odds for the CDU to get around 35-to-40 percent in Hessen....even before we opened up the discussion of a chaotic winter and limited natural gas, the SPD and Green folks aren't that blessed to start with.

Could a different event occur, where the coalition fails, and a federal election has to occur?

Yes, however this scenario means that the FDP would say this was winter-planning was a total mess, and keeping the government intact is not possible.  In this scenario, the government would fall....unless the SPD talked to the CDU and agreed to a SPD-CDU-CSU coalition government.  Odds of this....if the gov't fell apart?  Probably 30 to 50 percent chance.

If this was a massive winter mess, and everyone terribly bitter.....does it really harm the Greens and SPD that much?  I would voice the idea that the SPD doesn't have that much of a public 'box' to stand on....even before the invasion of the Ukraine started.  The Greens stand to get a few points from the SPD, and I see them as being the number two party shortly, and staying in that position for the next decade or two....in Germany.

I end this with the caution statement....if this was a five-star winter mess, and everyone disenchanted with the handling by the Scholz and the coalition government.....it would not be a pleasant spring, with demonstrations and antigovernmental chatter going on.  The Interior Ministry would openly claim that these were all populist-led riots/demonstrations.....run by the right-wing.  But the reality is.....it'd be both left and right elements to this chaos. 

If you were hoping for something.....I think it'd be a high hope for a weak winter.....marginally any snow, and just feel 'blessed' about climate change saving us from the worst possible scenario.