How I Read The Script.....

 There are several events going on presently, and I would suggest certain 'outcomes' out of these:

1.  Ukraine-Russia conflict.  Zero chance that the conflict ends in 2022, and it's mostly hinged to Putin passing on, and the next guy simply saying he's killed enough Nazi to satisfy the Russian public.  As for holding onto gained property in the Ukraine....I would not go and anticipate Russia having the military strength to hold out....logisitically....in this situation. At some point, probably by 2024....the Russian will hold some 20 by 60 mile area and just set aside a massive amount of hardware/troops....to have this 'claim-to-fame'.

2.  Gas crisis in Germany.  I don't think the Russians will turn off all flow of natural gas into Germany in 2022.  They may trim it back by 50-percent....just to show they have the power.  

I think all of this will lead to a political crisis in early 2023, and an agreement to enter into 'clean-fracking' (don't ask me what the hell that is).  By the end of 2023....the Germans will be fracking to some degree.

3.  Nitrogen-farm crisis in the Netherlands.  Before the fall....I think a collapse of the Dutch government will occur, and some new election by December.  

The demonstrations will hinder normal politics, and a new party will appear....pro-farmer in nature, and likely control 10-percent of the vote.  The threat against farms there...will be gone as the next coalition works up the agreement.

4.  The point where you know the Russian military is faked-up?  Well....when you start to notice WW II tanks being used and appearing as 'dead' tanks on the Ukrainian front.  

The question will arise.....what happened to all the capital that was put up for military equipment over the past twenty years?

5.  The HIMARS chatter in the Ukraine.  The delivery of the dozen 'launchers' has occurred, and the first attacks on Russian depots have started up.

If you had to pick one single weapon to change the outcome....this is it.  Artillery shells that are guided by satellite GPS.  You aim at the center of some fuel storage, and it hits the middle.  

Outcome?  I'd say in six weeks....there will be a hard decision made by the Russians to remove all fuel/logistical centers within the Ukraine, and the ability to stock the forces at the 'front'....will start to become a daily issue.