Today is a supposedly mild day for heat in central Germany.....with my local area supposedly around 26 C (79 F). Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday? Ranging from 32 to 36 C (97 F). Then this jets stream starts up from the west, and for the next ten days....it goes back down to the 25 to 28 C normal temperatures.
As heat goes....it's been mostly an average year (at least in the central region).
Well....if you follow what German news is saying....along the northern edge of the country (against the Serbian border)....there ethnic local Kosovo-leaning-toward-Serbia, and lately, they've been making trouble.
Several roads in the north have been blocked, with police shot at on occasion.
NATO ready to react? This weekend....they more-or-less said the magic words and are forming some strategy to handle the situation.
All of this over a 70 by 70 mile area of Kosovo? Yeah. If you asked me for a description of the region (having been through it as a tourist)....I'd say it's a fairly hilly region.....crappy 3rd-world paved roads....little if any jobs beyond agriculture or tourism. The pro-Serb crowd....carrying on with Russian influence likely in some form.
Around two to three months ago....this US female basketball player flew into Russia....to play for her team there....only to be found with cannabis 'vape'. Arrested and held.....this has turned into a fairly large circus event to get her free.
So, in these talks with Russia.....the US got talked into offering a Russian who is held on a 20-year prison sentence....arms-dealer type.
Then in the past few days....Russia asked for another prisoner (because the US put a 2nd citizen on the list).
Who the Russians want? Well....the Tiergarten 'killer'....a Russian guy (possibly FSB/KGB killer) who shot some guy in a Berlin park....back in August of 2019.
The 'rest' of the story?
The dead guy from the Berlin park....was a Chechen-born guy. From most news sites....he's regarded as a potential bad-guy who roamed around, and some think that the FSB was simply cleaning up a long-standing 'problem'.
The Germans caught this agent-guy, and he was finally convicted of a life sentence back in December 2021. The odd thing.....neither this convicted guy or the Russians have ever admitted that they were connected.
Likely nature of the Germans agreeing to some trade? Well....they'd want something in return....which means either the US or Russia has to cough up someone, but then admit that trading was perfectly acceptable to the German news media.
If the Germans refuse? I would guess that the female basketball player remains in jail....for her cannabis-vape crime. If I were the Germans....I'd demand that Turkey has to release some prisoner, and involve at least one or two other countries beyond the US and Russia.
Yeah, it's becoming a bit complicated to figure the end-result.
Focus picked up the topic today. The only reason for the tax? A number of providers are in serious trouble....likely to fold....unless they get some help.
The suggested amount now in the view? The consumer view? Around 254-percent of what you pay currently. Yeah, this won't settle in easily.
Last week, the Chancellor discussion suggested that it would not amount to more than 300 Euro per family per year. The Check24 site says now....the amount will range from 354 Euro a year, to 1,190 Euro a year....depending on your provider and the status (4-member family).
Worst case scenario? Some might see this up in the 3,000 Euro range per year.
I will say this....most middle-class German consumers would have accepted 300 Euro without much whining. Once you cross the 1,000 Euro threshold....it won't be so easily accepted, and if you hinted this would cross the 2,000 extra Euro for this 'tax'....there's going to be serious negative criticism.
At the 3,000 Euro (extra) level? You might as well turn off your natural gas supply to the furnace, and just heat via coal in the fireplace, and electrical. Yeah, it'll put the coalition government in a pretty stressful mess.
This weekend, if you watch both public/commercial German news....lot of hype going on over fracking being possibly allowed in Germany (forbidden since 2016).
I'll reference part of this discussion over to a N-TV news piece.
So what this goes around to....is energy creation in Germany (for the grid)....which leads back to a decision made thirty-odd years ago.
As of 2020, 12-percent of the German national grid is provided by 'clean' natural gas......not the evil nuclear or coal-powered plants. Why natural gas was considered clean? It was more of a environmental cause that the government went to, and kept repeating for the public.
If you asked any German politician how much of the 12-percent was clean (not fracked).....via Russia? They'd mostly grin and shake their heads. They have no idea. It might be 1-percent. It might be 50-percent. It might be 100-percent.
This is where the government starts to look like an idiot....where foreign procured fracked natural gas is OK, but German produced natural gas is evil.
In recent days....Lower Saxony's PM (Weil, CDU) has picked up the subject and agreed....if you approved fracking in Germany.....none of this emergency would exist.
Presently? It's impossible to turn on fracking, without a national discussion, and it'd take a minimum of a year to really show results and prevent an emergency in the fall of 2023.
What Bavaria's Soder (the PM) has said? He's asking if new methods (cleaner) for fracking exists, and if so.....why can't fracking occur?
My humble view? You can't open the discussion unless you put new fracking methods on the table, and if some clean method exists.....then this shouldn't take more than a week of discussion to approve.
Here's the thing....if you had your own inventory....the price would drop like a rock over a one-month period. It wouldn't shock me if the typical yearly bill....with pure German natural gas....dropped by 50-percent.
The two sections of Germany with natural gas potential? Lower Saxony and Baden-Wurttemberg. Politically divided? Lower Saxony is led by the CDU Party, with B-W led by the Green Party.
What I believe will happen? Several discussions about fracking will occur, with newer methods laid upon the table. Around the end of the year.....as shortages start to be observed....it will be agreed upon to start fracking in 2023 (probably the spring), but you won't see any real results in 2023 (likely to be early 2024 before the numbers are shown).
It's not the best answer....but considering the problems with Russia will continue for the decades to come.....you have to reset the dynamics.
1. Is there a discussion going on to cancel Oktoberfest.....not due to Covid, but to the heating situation in the fest tents (requiring natural gas)?
Well....there is some discussion going on, and at best....I think the tents will have some marginal heat (probably limiting temperatures to 18 C).
From 1810 (the first Oktoberfest)...until the 1960s, other than wood fires....the fests weren't heated. Having been there myself....for daytime operations, you don't need to worry much over heating. There might be some evenings with rough rainy weather, and the heat might be necessary.
2. Votes are being counted today from the Lufthansa pilots on the next strike. Results should be announced by mid-afternoon. Last week's strike was held by non-pilot members of the company.
3. The Finance Minister (Lindner, FDP) is asking the Economics Minister (Habeck, Greens) to lessen use of the natural gas energy plants, and allow the nuke plants to operate instead.
Part of this discussion gets to a pretty hypocritical situation....where the Germans are buying natural gas.....which was pumped out via fracking, but from another country (since it's been illegal in Germany to frack since 2016).
I noticed last night via the news, the Bavarian state government is now asking blunt questions about why fracking can't be done in Germany for this emergency situation....if the purchased non-German gas is fracked anyway.
4. I noticed the German Federal Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW) and the Federal Network Agency....both said that you can't allow Germans to drift back to use of electrical heating, while cutting natural gas use. Reason? The grid can't handle the demand.
Sales of the electrical radiators/heaters? Well....if you walk into a Hornbach or Obi store (hardware stores in Germany)....there simply aren't any heating systems on the shelf (they've all been sold). You can order some, and probably anticipate a four to six month waiting period for delivery.
5. There's some internal polling done on the nuke plant issue (keeping them open past December of 2022). A majority of Green Party members would now agree to keep the three plants remaining plants open, and it would appear that a multi-year situation would be accepted.
6. I noticed from WELT (the newspaper), that around 70 German linguists and philologists are squaring off against ARD/ZDF (the two public TV networks) on their efforts to push “gender-equitable forms of language”.
Their hype? This gender chatter attack on the German language is "ideological, disregards valid rules and produces social discord".
Prior to 2022? You just didn't see this gender language chatter much at all....it's come on real sudden.
What'll happen? Eventually, via a public forum on ARD or ZDF....this gender-language chatter will be put up for debate, and it won't go in a friendly way for the network folks. Wokeism will be discussed and it's just not something that Germans want to deal with.
There's an interesting commentary by Jan Fleischhauer on Focus today.....which you can see over at this site.
The topic? "Panic in Berlin - Will the Nazis break through in us again if everything gets more expensive?"
My view? There is a certain point where the cost of living becomes a public problem, and the government lessens in terms of stability. Trust and frustration....starts to become a daily issue of concern.
Is the term 'Nazis' worth bringing up? I would suggest that a large segment of this potential crowd aren't Nazi-like or share in the visions of the 1932 crowd. There are simple everyday things....which people are attached to, and expect to be within their financial 'reach'.
About once a month, the wife and I will have a Turkish 'pick-up' for a Friday night....which for the last five years....has been around 13.25 Euro. Back in March, the Turk offered the same dinner combo for 14.00 Euro. Last night, we reached a new level for the same dinner combo......15.00 Euro. Just a humble guess, but by December, I expect the dinner combo to be around 16.50 Euro.
Salaries rising at the same rate as the escalation? No.....that's the harsh part of this reality. I might be lucky on my pension/retirement to get a 2-percent rise a year, and maybe every four years.....my wife sees a salary adjustment of 3 to 4 percent. In a normal financial period....this would all match up. Presently? No....it doesn't match up.
Fleischhauer makes one key point.....each time the government offers a 'gift'.....it's really a paid-for-gift from the taxes in place. So as much as some 9-Euro monthly ticket seems great.....you already paid for the additional costs for the Bahn....from your taxes. Same for the 30-cents per liter discount....that was also covered by additional taxes.
Last night, for the 9:45 PM ARD news....the journalists went to a segment on the Bundestag building (in Berlin), and the effort to show they are trying to save energy.
There is a master-control room in the structure....where some 'controller-guy' is monitoring/controlling energy use.
A lot of technology and planning has gone into this.
They later went into detail about other government buildings in the city.....where the efforts are made to cut energy use.
On the positive side? They are trying to let you know that they (representatives and employees) are playing by the less-energy strategy....as they force the same strategy upon the general public.
On the negative side? I would take a humble guess that only half the homes/apartments in the country are set to a 'use-less-power/energy' strategy.
It is a odd development unfolding within the state of Hessen. Police are acting on warrants to raid.....police homes.
I sat and viewed the story on N-TV this AM.
So the way this goes....there's a belief that some Hessen police have become right-wing extremists. This goes along the path that they 'chat' on various extremist-bulletin boards.
Just junior police? No....there appears to be higher-ranking police among the homes searched, and computers seized.
The suggestion that the five might have released information that benefited the extremist folks? That suggestion is out there.
Just a recent thing? No.....this has been going on for around five years....with various internal investigations going on.
At the current pace? One might suspect that things will reach a stage within five years where every policemen in the state is a suspect of something, and state-run truth commissions are a permanent part of the process.
The problem here....a normal policeman with no extremist values....just looks at the amount of effort being made....questions the leadership and the investigation attention, then wonders why he should stay in the profession. Then he goes home to chat on social media about his frustrations.....which is quietly monitored by some police unit.
1. I sat and watched a 30-minute piece of N-TV news this morning, while sipping coffee in Wiesbaden. The big three news 'dumps'? (1) Energy chaos, (2) the forest fires in Brandenburg, and (3) the German Agricultural Minister (Green Party) trying to sell people on eating less meat....to save the environment.
Yeah, it's a pretty crazy time to be watching the news and trying to assemble facts. I'll admit over the fires.....it's just awful dry (my yard has been dead since late May). On the energy mess.....it goes in five different directions, with all kinds of hype over nuke energy or the approaching dire events.
2. Some kind of weird fight erupted on a Wiesbaden (my town) city bus. Kid gets tangled up with a threat or two at the bus-stop.....he boards a bus to escape the opposing idiot. The opposing idiot also boards the bus, and then uses pepper spray at the kid, and hits another passenger or two with the spray. All hell breaks loose.....bus stops, and the pepper-spray idiot escapes.
There's hardly a day that passes when weird stuff like this or assaults....occur in the city now.
1. Presently, the Bahn folks (railway system in Germany) are offering monthly tickets (bus and train)....for nine Euro. Go anywhere in Germany....only intercity fast trains or ICE (high-speed) trains are forbidden with the cheapo tickets. They started in June, and will end at the conclusion of August.
So the hype has started up....what can they offer in September?
I read this morning that some people are pressing to have a 29-Euro (per month) ticket. The chief selling point? There is a claim (unproven at this point) that a lot of working people bought the 9-Euro ticket and went daily to work via bus/train.....thus saving gas and keeping the land 'pure/clean'.
I will agree...a lot of people used the cheapo tickets for off-days and vacation time....flooding the rail system especially on weekends. If you were trying to 'sell' the 'brand' for continued use.....it'd be a miserable experience to try using the weekend travel option.
2. Lot of chatter this morning....suggesting that the national natural gas storage tanks need to be 95-percent full by the fall.....to avoid chaos.
3. WELT says that this new natural gas surcharge tax....will amount to 5 Euro-cents per Kwh (about double what the public was expecting), and so the average for a family of four....could be around 1,000 Euro per year EXTRA in cost.
The charge reason? Basically.....a number of providers are in dire troubles, and the government will ensure their survival by this tax. Massive anger coming? I'd suggest if it were 300 Euro a year.....most folks could find a pocket of money to cover it. For the bottom third of society....a 1,000 Euro is a big chunk of money to 'find'.
4. Some environmental study discussed by WELT.....saying that the average clothing wash in Germany....runs at 42 C (107 F). The study says 30 C (86 F) is all that is really required.....so Germans need 'encouragement' to change their habit.
5. Hessen state government sent out a letter to all public buildings (libraries, city gov't structures, schools, etc). Winter heating temperature will be set to 20 C, and NO hot water for use in bathrooms. Most critics came up and said the measures won't be enough.
1. There's a new German natural gas 'tax' to occur in October. Driving force? Well.....the supply people are in dire straits.....so the tax income will help prevent bankruptcy among them.
How much of a tax? Up to this point....unknown, which is a bit odd.
The suggested scenario going around would be two additional Euro-cents per Kilowatt hour, or in the range of 300 Euro extra a year for a family of four. Acceptable to the public? I doubt if the middle-class will buy into this discussion easily.
2. There was supposed to have been a reggae music concert-fest down in Switzerland. Chief band involved? Bunch of white folks with dreadlocks. Cancel crowd got wind of the whole thing.....appears the concert is cancelled....because of the fake nature of the hair.
Yeah....but if you gaze around Europe....there's probably about forty reggae bands, of which they are all white Europeans. So the music as far as I can see.....is finished, unless they import some Jamaican groups.
3. In the past couple of days....lot of chatter coming out of Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg, over natural gas worries, a severe winter, and a potential power-grid problem.
Soder, the Premier-President for Bavaria is asking for face-to-face meetings with the Scholz coalition government. The general hype? He wants the Bavarian nuke-power plant that was supposed to close in December.....to remain open. The amount of power that it supplies to the state? Around the 25-percent range.
This probably will progress over the next month into a top five topic for the government, and puts more pressure on the idea of keeping the three nuke plants operational past December.
Green Party reaction? They swear up and down.....that the nuke position is complete shutdown.....no deal past December (presently).
4. I noticed a Russian-Ukrainian war story this AM.....which might be partially to fully BS. Some Russian conscript was captured, and admitted that once he'd been recruited.....then spent five days at boot-camp, and then dumped off at the 'front'. He had zero knowledge of his gun upon arrival.
Personally, I can't believe they'd be that stupid to just drive the guy into the front, and confidence-wise.....he wouldn't last more than a week or two in combat situations. Imagine a thousand Conscripts like this.
This scenario got laid out by Focus today and it's worth a moment think about the implications in Germany.
So with the natural gas chatter going on, and the threat of a government mandate to limit home heating to 19C, something odd has started up.
If you go to a German hardware store....looking for space heaters....it's bare. I noticed that a month ago in my regional hardware shop. Reason? Folks are figuring they won't have the chance to heat the home with natural gas (for the furnance).....so they intend to have a couple of space heaters in the home.
In my house....I run with a natural gas furnace, and a radiator in each room. I have one single space heater (for 70 sq meters)....for the bathroom. If you asked me about heating....I'd say it runs for about 30 minutes per day (usually during winter evening when you want to shower). In the basement, because of past issues....I have four additional space heaters, which have been used about three times over the past dozen years (problems with the house system triggered their use).
So here's the thing....the government now believes people will comply with the mandate for less heat by natural gas, but augment it by having conventional heaters in various rooms. So for a house with 2 x bedrooms, a kitchen, a living and a bath.....you might be talking about five of these.
If you ran the five for 12 hours a day....with less heat from natural gas furnace? Well....it'd draw power off the grid, and nationally....some people now believe the grid would NOT be able to support the demand. A cost factor too? Well....lets discuss this, and just suggest that if you ran the five daily.....for 12 hours....you are adding to your yearly electrical bill by a minimum of 2,000 Euro. If you went entirely by this method? Focus says the amount would total up around 3,400 Euro.
We come to this government mandated stress-test of the grid, and what might come out of this.
You won't know the test results until probably the end of August to the beginning of September.
My humble view is that the engineers will just say that the grid wasn't built to handle this demand....unless you flipped the three nuke plants to close in December.....back to full status, and then add the three nuke plants closed in 2021 also into the mix.
In simple terms....there's a national failure of the grid unless you fix the natural gas crisis with Russia, or accept nuke power.
I also think that the long-term view (for the next 10 years).....will require the six nuclear plants, and a re-visit of accepting nuke power or coal power....for the long-term.
For the SPD and Green Parties? Well....they have to fall upon their sword and admit a lot of mistakes in their past strategy, and for a quarter of their voters....I would suggest this is a bitter pill to swallow.
FYI, do I believe my fuse box and house-wiring can handle five heavy-duty conventional heaters? No. At best....maybe two lite-units, and one heavy-duty heater is my limit.
Looking around the village....I'd suggest that more than half the houses have a wattage limit, and there's going to be a lot of electrical issues (possibly fires) brewing this winter.
1. Lufthansa strike is in effect for today (1-day strike). Yeah, it has a lot of travelers hostile and frustrated. If you were scheduled for today....it's shaky that they will have some arrangement for tomorrow, and it might be three to five days before your opportunity arises for another seat. Totally screws up vacation plans.
2. There is some type of internal discussion going on within the Green Party about extending the life of the three remaining nuclear plants. They don't want a bunch of people within the party getting freaked-out one way or another.
There's talk of a power-plant 'stress-test'.....where measurements will be taken, and ONLY after that....would the discussion of the three nuke plants come up. By the mandate existing.....all three MUST go off in December.
My view? Once you go to a 19 C mandate for home/apartment temperatures for the winter....people will 'cheat' in some way to bring up two or three space heaters around the house, and burn 25-percent more electrical power to make up for the lacking warmth (by using less natural gas). I will forecast that by December....if the nuke plants are turned off.....a crisis in January with brown-outs will occur.
I also noticed yesterday....news report where a guy was procuring a fair amount of coal for this winter, and the odds are some clean-air index will be announced as a critical problem in society.
3. Just an odd and funny story came up on Focus.....involving the chief of RBB (the Berlin public TV network). The chief had gone out and arranged a catered dinners at her home (figuring 56 Euro a person, nine times from 2018 to 2022). Fair chunk of money.....which was handed to the network as a 'business expense'.
Between 3 and 11 people were at each dinner.....so this comes out to a couple thousand Euro.
Maybe it's all legit, but this will be a negative listed for the next rise in the TV-media tax. Also begs the question....from dozen-odd sub-networks....are the rest of the 'bosses' doing the same thing? Final question....was this at-home-catering deal done throughout the past fifty-odd years of existence for RBB?
4. There is a frontal system coming up from Africa next week....suggesting an average temperature of 42 C (107 F) for at least two days.
5. I noticed off WELT a comment toward the sick-leave used by state employees in Berlin....in 2020....came to around five weeks each.
6. Someone did a count of wind-generators in Brandenburg and Berlin. Totals? Brandenburg region has 3,900 wind-generators....Berlin has six. I will admit....size-wise....Brandenburg is about 15 times the size of Berlin.....but about three-quarters of the region is what I'd consider fairly rural or farm-like.
So there is a discussion going on.....to put more wind-generators into Berlin. Odds of this being accepted? I'd be humble and say it'd be fought to a great extent.
7. Some kind of whining starting up about the German national soccer team preparing for the World Cup in Nov-Dec of this year. The Cup is going to be in Qatar.
Of the 32 teams scheduled to play in matches in Qatar.....31 are living/staying in hotel complexes within Doha-City itself. The Germans are staying in some private complex miles outside of the city....set in the desert-coastal area (north-end) itself....about 70 km away from Doha.
ARD (public TV, Channel One) did an update and talked about the 'path'.
So....if you test positive for Covid....the quarantine time is now 5 days (not the 14 we had from two years ago).
The medical industry in Germany? Well....they are admitting that manpower-wise....there's trouble brewing, and there's some suggestion of a change coming. The basic idea? If you are tested positive....if you feel 'well-enough-to-work'....you go back to work (maybe only two or three days into this quarantine business). This argument is being met with opposition. The government idea is....five days....is five days.
The mask business? The general path is that indoors....when it really comes back in numbers....it has to be applied. The FDP Party has stood up and said 'fine'.....show up the test and facts. Well...that's not really something that anyone has done in detail (since 2020).
My humble view....the mandate to wear masks for buses or trains....will continue (maybe for years).
Mandating the vaccination business? It won't happen. At best, they are really pushing hard for those over 60 to get the shot.
Testing? Still a lot of chatter going on.
Compared to summer of 2022? It just isn't the hardline positions being taken.
Well....there are only two state elections for 2023, and if everything 'goes-to-hell-in-a-handbasket'.....then the momentary affect centers on those two elections. Locations? State of Hessen and Bavaria. Both set for the September/October period.
Which parties could end up in a heavy loss situation for those two states? SPD and Green parties.
But here is the thing....presently...the CSU is clearly in the front in Bavaria, and I'd give pretty good odds for the CDU to get around 35-to-40 percent in Hessen....even before we opened up the discussion of a chaotic winter and limited natural gas, the SPD and Green folks aren't that blessed to start with.
Could a different event occur, where the coalition fails, and a federal election has to occur?
Yes, however this scenario means that the FDP would say this was winter-planning was a total mess, and keeping the government intact is not possible. In this scenario, the government would fall....unless the SPD talked to the CDU and agreed to a SPD-CDU-CSU coalition government. Odds of this....if the gov't fell apart? Probably 30 to 50 percent chance.
If this was a massive winter mess, and everyone terribly bitter.....does it really harm the Greens and SPD that much? I would voice the idea that the SPD doesn't have that much of a public 'box' to stand on....even before the invasion of the Ukraine started. The Greens stand to get a few points from the SPD, and I see them as being the number two party shortly, and staying in that position for the next decade or two....in Germany.
I end this with the caution statement....if this was a five-star winter mess, and everyone disenchanted with the handling by the Scholz and the coalition government.....it would not be a pleasant spring, with demonstrations and antigovernmental chatter going on. The Interior Ministry would openly claim that these were all populist-led riots/demonstrations.....run by the right-wing. But the reality is.....it'd be both left and right elements to this chaos.
If you were hoping for something.....I think it'd be a high hope for a weak winter.....marginally any snow, and just feel 'blessed' about climate change saving us from the worst possible scenario.
In the last day or so.....the Economics Minister (Habeck, Greens) came out and said that there is a draft-plan existing....to carry out some mandated optimization of natural gas furnaces/hot water heaters in Germany.
How this would work? Unknown.
My wife generally has a 15-minute visit once a year by the furnace maintenance guy, and if there were issues....he'd note the estimate and man-hours involved.
Do most Germans do that? I doubt it.
Cost factor for what Habeck is suggesting? I would wager a 15-to-20 minute visit would run at least 100 Euro, and if some optimization chatter were to occur....you'd be talking about another 1,000 Euro minimum....possibly with the guy telling you that your unit is on it's dying legs, and needs to be replaced.
On the one hand....I'd go and also wager that more than a quarter of all German natural gas units are not working at optimum levels.
But what he's suggesting here is the clear path where the inspection guy tells you that your 16-year old unit is marginally working and a quarter of yearly bill could be cut with a new efficient unit. Then comes the cost factor....8,000 Euro to remove the old unit, and install a new/better unit. Adding to this epic story....you'd normally do this in the May-to-September period....NOT October or November.
The negative thing about this whole trend? Having some government guy mandate this, and it has a price tag attached for the effort required.
1. What came out of the EU talks on natural gas usage?
Well...they passed the draft yesterday, which N-TV chatted upon this AM. The agreement basically says every country in the EU will start a goal of cutting 15-percent of their usage (compared to last year).
How they reach this? I think for public buildings...orders will occur where the temperature will be dropped to 19 C. Probably the same mandate for homes and apartments.
They suggest that this will cut the demand upon pricing....lesser consumption....lesser cost. They would all share in the 'pain'.
2. Chatter on keeping the 3 remaining nuclear plants online?
The most realistic chatter is that several key individuals in the government will push to have the three remaining plants active until the end of 2024 (not December of 2022).
And yes, they'd have to order more rods....taking six months for arrival. This decision needs to be made by the end of August....to make this whole gimmick work.
3. Major forest fires going on in Brandenburg?
There's exceptionally dry conditions across all of central Germany at present. At least 90 seconds of the Monday night prime news on ARD covered the topic. Even locally here in Wiesbaden....lot of rules on outdoor bar-b-q situations.
1. Will German outdoor pools close early this summer?
Well....rumor chatter has started up that if your outdoor pool had some heating element (with natural gas usage)....then an order will probably come down by the state governments to shut down early....maybe early August....maybe mid-August. Most would be closed by mid-September or the week prior, if this were a normal year.
2. Big hyped-up EU meeting over the natural gas crisis for Tuesday?
Yes, but the draft has a number of countries peeved, and I'd say that the text will not be approved in mass.....meaning NO clear EU joint policy.
3. Part of the Anne Will public forum (9:45 PM, ARD) for last night (topic: the natural gas crisis) was to decide upon who screwed up to trigger this. Did this go well?
NO. This had to eventually reach the stage of deciding how fu*ked-up this is, and who is to blame.....with this leading back to the 1970s and the SPD Party connection back to the Soviet Union and trade.
As much as the journalists wanted to assign blame.....they themselves helped to avoid discussions in the 1970s, and 1980s.
It's best to avoid these discussions because they have no value.
4. What's this hype from the German Bureau of Statistics this morning?
Well....if you go looking for 'young people in Germany between 15 and 24....we are at the lowest percent of society....ever. And then, you ask....can this improve? No....presently, the trend will continue.
5. More problems in air travel coming?
Wednesday morning....Lufthansa folks are saying a strike will occur. You can expect a lot of flight cancellations to occur around Germany.
I sat last night and observed the 7 PM ZDF weather 'minute'....where they did the temperature setting for Monday.....where the color tint is lined up with their heat pattern.
You are free to watch the piece.
There's no doubt that most all of the German news-weather folks (public/commercial) do some version of tint-color business....using dark-red for temperatures, and its' mostly up to their feeling.....how RED you really need to go.
Being done in the past twenty years? I would just say that it's slowly been introduced in the past couple of years. But it's also a dynamic for winters....where ultra-blue is used for arctic conditions.
The thing I have against it....where you have a temperature setting of 20 to 30 C (68 to 86 F).....I really don't consider it hot. To me....that setting ought to be a neutral gray color. Maybe if it did get to 36 C or above....some ultra-red tint then.
So far in my area of central Germany for 2022? It's only been to the extreme of 35 C about four days, and maybe from 30 to 34 maybe eight days. For the next week? Pattern appears to be 25 to 28 C the whole time....which just isn't that hot.
Maybe I'm interpreting this wrong? Well....I grew in Alabama where hot muggy summers are just plain normal. I spent four years in Arizona where 40 C to 45 C was considered normal. And I spent three years in Panama where it was 28 to 32 C mostly all-year-round.
Yes, I'm a anti-tint person....just give me the facts....not the 'color-sales-job'.
1. Uniper, the natural gas company in Germany, in serious trouble? Stock price this AM? Now at 7.50 to 8.00 Euro range per share....having fallen from a high point in May where it was selling at 25 Euro a share.
There has to be some German or EU plan to save Uniper, and if that occurs....the stock would recover. Failure to save them? It creates a massive gov't take-over and things could be even worse.
2. This EU plan to 'share' the pain of the natural gas shortage (because of the war)? Well....it's getting a lot of criticism from Portugal and Spain. It might be enough to trigger a government crisis in both countries....if something doesn't happen to reverse things.
3. There was a big wedding party held down in Gammertingen (Baden-Wurttemberg) over the weekend. Massive party....fireworks in the middle of this, and something went wrong.
From the general description....fireworks erupted into a mess....fire escalated, and at least 400 local firemen were called to duty. Damages? Up into the millions.
Insurance to cover this? I would imagine the minute you bring up fireworks at a tire shop.....the insurance company will say 'no'.
I spent the weekend down in Bavaria....at Platting. Every four years....they have a fest which is dedicated to the legend of Gudrun (mythical story/poem). Things get shutdown and there's a huge fest area set up in the main part of the town, with a stage area dedicated to their rendition of story of Kriemhild. So we had tickets and I sat through the 'play'.
My observations?
1. This is a legend of sorts.....written for the period of about 453. On some parts of the story, it might hold a bit of truth....the dragon stuff? No. But that's the way that legends work.
2. There's probably 40 speaking parts to the 'play'....with another eighty-odd people in the background.
3. For reference, there's been two attempts to tell the story via movies. The first was a silent-film. The second was a mid-1960s attempt....which was called the 'Niebelungen'.....which came out in two parts.
At that point, roughly 8-million DM's was spent on the production, and it was deemed a highly successful movie, but dumped upon by critics.
4. My basic description of the legend? There's a whole lot of soap-opera-like chatter about Kings, Queens, relationships, threats, and some dragon which has to be slain (for the good of the kingdom). Toward the last fifteen minutes....lot of killing going, with about half of the background actors 'dead' on the stage. High point for me....the moment that the four red-headed witches enter and do their spell upon folks.
It's just a pretty long and difficult story to tell upon a stage. I'd almost rank this as a 'Lord of the Rings' type story, and it's worthily of being made into a movie but once you throw in the dragon....folks would get all enchanted or weepy-eyed to have the dragon in a third of the scenes, and that just doesn't fit with the whole story itself.
Next attempt at the play in the town? Not until 2026. For some of the locals who got picked for parts? This is the 'legend' of their lives, and they probably will be forever remembered as such-and-such character.
My only negative about this episode? The show started at 9 PM....with a pause in the middle....ending around 11:45 PM. With hotels in town maxed out, we were staying at some town about 16 km away....so with the single remaining train ride....we didn't get back until 1:30 AM.
I try not to criticize German public TV much (I know my rate is somewhere around 1 to 2 criticisms per day). This came up via the public TV weather people.
With shade, light clothing and hydration....34 C is not that bad.
The second image is from same date, in 2022. The temperatures are mostly 22 to 28 C. But you notice the rich RED color....to indicate 'heat'?
It's a funny thing....you can take naïve people and blend in color like this, and then hype 'climate-change'....when in 2017....it was hotter, and no rich colors used.
Adding to this comedy....in some places around Germany with 22 C (71 F)....you will notice Germans wearing light jackets and long pants....telling you it's just too cool for them.
I noticed off Focus....a news piece from the British. Their chief of intelligence has assessed the Russia-Ukraine war and come to this conclusion....in the next couple of weeks....the Russian enthusiasm will drop substantially.
He might have a point....more western artillery weapons arriving in the Ukraine, and I suspect the bulk of Russian weapons have come to an end.
It would be funny to wake up in September....with 10,000 Russian conscripts walking off the field and driving back into Russia (refusing to fight any longer). The war would collapse in a matter of hours.
With the PM resigning in Italy....there are six things to take out of this:
1. The next election was supposed to be June 2023. It will now be late September/early October 2022.
2. Five parties are likely to be the big players, and another 15 to get representation.
3. The real winner? Top vote party, who has to build a coalition of 50-percent or more. So you felt lucky with a 27-percent win....you now have to find one, two or three partners to reach 50-plus percent.
4. The Five-Star Movement? In the last election....they were a big deal. What'd I call them? A populist group.....with some fairly odd positions on different topics. Last election? They were up in the 30-percent range. Right now? 13-to-14 percent range.
5. Right now in polling? No one is really above the 25-percent level, and it appears the Liga folks (right-wing) and the Democratic Party (left-wing) will end up nearly equal positions in polling. I don't think either will partner up with the other. It's possible you might see the winner, with the number four, five and six parties. In simple terms.....a fairly weak and marginal position for the government to work.
6. Chief complaints? Recession, farming regulations, Covid regulations, and foreigners in Italy.
I sat and read through an interesting piece from HR (my regional public TV folks)...concerning wind-generators.
So, if you were an investor and had some plan to erect three generators on a property in Hessen....it would take around 3.2 years to get all the paperwork approved for the transportation and erection.
Getting to the point of submitting the paperwork? They avoided that discussion, but I would guess you spent at least two years with your team....picking the right location and drafting the transport plan from the factory to the site.
The Green Party reaction to the current mess? Unacceptable.
Presently....seventy projects are in a 'waiting' pattern for permission to transport and erect.
Public opposition in the middle of this? Once you announce a plan to put up a 'park' (say 3 wind-generators).....if they are within a couple of kilometers of some town....you can anticipate trouble, and legal challenges. Same way with farmers....they don't want it near their dairy or cattle operation.
Selling wind-power today? It's a rough business and not for the typical investor.
1. Well....the natural gas flow from Russia into Germany....after the repair was complete....was turned on yesterday. Amount of the flow? Journalists say it's about 30-percent.
How this will relate to things? Maybe with some make-up efforts....with some reserve natural gas in the system....I would estimate it'll be a tough winter period to survive through, but there will be enough gas to do the job.
2. The EU did come out yesterday and say a goal of cutting natural gas use by 15-percent is on the agenda. Whether all 28 nations will go this way? Unknown.
3. Focus reports.....US intelligence now estimates that around 15,000 Russians have died in the Ukraine war. Ukraine itself says the number is closer to 50,000. As I saw in one YouTube conversation with a Ukrainian local....there's dead Russian bodies (in uniforms) all over the place, and they just bury them.....so to say that anyone has a true count? It's just not possible.
4. Italian PM Draghi gone? In coalition talks (to rebuild)....it's not going well. Pretty high odds now....a new election will have to be called. I'd estimate it to happen by the end of September/early October. Lot of frustration going on with consumers, farmers, and the youth.
5. Just about every evening for the past week, via public TV ARD or ZDF....there's been a chat about the nuke power plants in Germany. The remaining operational ones would be turned off by the end of December....via an agreement set into motion several years ago with the government (note, they are funded to be turned off).
In some ways, I think the news efforts are gearing the public (particularly Green Party folks) to just accept the fact that the turn-off will NOT occur. These three nuke plants will probably be around for a number of extra years.
6. N-TV had a piece on the Uniper problem (the natural gas company with severe financial issues). The amount they are probably going to ask the government to provide? Between 2.5 and 8 billion Euro.
German welfare (Hartz IV) is going away (it's been around for thirty years in the Hartz IV format). What most most will say of the program prior to the Hartz IV.....people were getting a ridiculous amount of money and the system was going to eventually bankrupt the nation (at least they say and believe this).
So what is the new Burgergeld program looking like? A draft came out today. The deal would fall into place around early January of 2023.
The amount? Well...the hint is 40 to 50 Euro more a month.
Will this solve the welfare issues? No.....but you get away from the term Hartz IV, and there's supposed to be a reactionary thing built into this for inflation....where the amount would adjust....month to month.
I sat and watched N-24 news today (associated with Welt). Two curious things came up.
First, it's now openly discussed within the government that a mandate could be handed down, and house/apartment temperatures could be 'ordered' to stand at 18 C (64.4 F).....for this winter.
How this would work? Unknown.
I just can't see audits or government guys coming around to check your kitchen temperature.
The fact that you might heat via natural gas to 18C, and then run some portable heater (off electricity) to raise it four degrees during the 5 PM to 10 PM period? It would be legal....far as I can see.
Second thing? That repaired compressor for the natural gas flow (Nord Stream I) from Russia to Germany....will be turned on tomorrow. Flow should start again......unless some new dynamic starts up.
Oh, and I should mention here....FDP Party brought up fracking again today. It'll be a weekly thing and I suspect by March of 2023.....some fracking mandate will be approved by the coalition government.....allowing it.
I noticed this odd story off German Twitter today.....thinking it was bogus. Well...no, it's not bogus. So the site with the story? DailyBeast.
The story goes this way....."Russia Says It’s Losing Because Ukraine Has Experimental Mutant Troops Created in Secret Biolabs."
The key to this.....'Russia says'. It's a fairly fake story, and probably originating from some Russian General trying to explain the losses at this point, and just makes up a story....which a journalist writes down and tries to explain to the public.
Here's the thing....500,000 Russians will read the story, discuss it with friends, and fully believe the story.
If I were Ukraine....I'd go and confirm the story.....with pictures of giant monster-like men, and start to broadcast attacks to come....from monster-corps #2. I'd even go and have a 'Doctor Evil' who does chatty stuff, with his wife 'Nurse Evil'.
The trouble with all of this....it gets into US/German news sources, and half of the public really believe this BS.
It might even reach a level where the Dallas Cowboys believe the story, and send a coach to the Ukraine....to recruit four guys for the defensive team.
1. Putin did make a statement yesterday....something to the effect that Gazprom would honor it's contract. I think part of this story.....he needs the foreign capital badly, and the sanctions are in bad way for Moscow to handle.
However, he did hint maintenance issues can always cut the flow.
If the gas continues at the same pace? Well....there's only one single crisis in Germany....the cost factor. You can continue to heat the house at 21 C, and things will work as advertised. On cost, it'll be 100 to 200 percent more than it was in January 2020.
2. It was laid out yesterday....EU officials are getting a 8.5-percent pay raise....due to inflation.
Yeah, it probably peeved a number of folks.
3. With all this heat going on....ADAC came out and warned folks of 'cracking' on autobahn pavements.....where asphalt pops up. Fairly dangerous situation, and you probably should avoid speeds above 100 kph.
4. There's chatter of 2,000 Turks about to arrive in Germany.....to help on the airport baggage business.
Issues? Well....they haven't even started the security process...to ensure they are 'safe' and reliable. The odds of this adding another four weeks to the arrival? Probably.
The split? Four cities: Munich, Berlin, Dusseldorf and Frankfurt.
Saying that this processing could be done in two weeks? The airports suggested that was physically impossible.
My general bet? There might be a hundred stamped 'ok' within ten days......packing their bags and heading off. The rest? Figure three to six weeks. So all this crappy bag 'lost' business will continue through to the end of August....that's my prediction.
The contracts? Most journalists suggest a 90-day contract being the norm. I'll point this out....if you arrive on 1 September....that period is a pretty slow period for the next 90 days. But I personally think the 90-day contract will get extended through to January of 2022, and it's possible that a quarter of these guys will be offered permanent contracts, and stay on for years.
5. For years and years....summer fires would come in Germany, and you'd notice....the government had no planes dedicated for the effort....just mostly helicopters.
There was chatter yesterday that there's some emphasis to be made now....finding some capital to buy some planes for forest fires.
Yesterday, after being delayed a time or two (weather)....I did my first ever balloon ride (it'll also be my last). So as the trip unfolded:
This was set to be a 7 PM lift-off on the other side of Frankfurt (to the east). If you were to describe the 'boonies' of Germany....I'd select this town. It was about 10 miles east of Hanau.
We set out in a van (pulling the balloon trailer) at 5:30....'Huns' and 'Larry' as our 'guides'. There were four of us passengers (my wife and I, with two ladies).
We drove to some farmers field about three miles way, and began to assemble the 'unit'. I will just say that it's not rocket-science, and pretty simple. The key component....this wicker-made basket, which must have weighed near 600 pounds.
Come 7 PM.....the first problem came up. Since this was the highest temperature day of the year so far (40.5 C, or 105 F)....it was too hot to take-off.....so we lingered, and lingered, and lingered. Around 9 PM, it finally reached a decent temperature, and the fire was set up. We probably lifted off around 9:20 PM.
It was a fine trip....we probably covered about 25 km over the next hour.....mostly in a 'L-shape' because of the light wind.
Then, it came time to land. 'Huns' had given some direction on this, and this approaching site...seemed to me to have a negative. It was a farmer's field (newly harvested) with a telephone pole situation about 10 meters to the right. We delayed for about 30 seconds this site, and then aimed at the next field....also newly harvested.
I'd say that final 90 seconds was something you probably would prefer not to repeat in life.
As we hit the ground....he had selected a stalk-rich field (newly harvested), with the rows going horizontal to our path. For some reason, I was on the end that would hit first, and it tipped immediately on the side. This grip situation he had advised us to take....frankly.....didn't work.
That balloon slide with the drag...probably about 200 feet.....bumping over each row (pretty dry dirt). I had both my wife and one of the other ladies laying on top of my legs. I was wearing shorts, and this wicker-stuff was scrapping the hell out of my knees.
It did finally come to a resting spot, and I felt some relief. I put my hand out on the dirt, then coming to realize about a foot away....was a pile of deer crap. So I took stock of the situation, and went to the other direction for the full exit.
We spent about an hour....putting the piece and parts back into the trailer.....bringing out wine with Snickers bars for some sugar-action. On hydration issues....yeah, I was in need of water in a severe way. That bottle I brought with me....gone in eight gulps.
It was an odd location....farmers field....fairly dry dirt (it hasn't really rained hard in several months), with a 20-house village over to the end of the site. It was a bowl-like field. Clear, with the temperature finally getting down to 28 C (82 F). We stood there for a good 30 minutes....a bit chatty, and finally got into the truck.
Getting to the car....around 11:40 PM. Yeah, it was completely dark by then. Hour's drive to reach home. Probably didn't get to sleep until 1:20 AM.
My general take....maybe it's worth doing once in your life....but don't do it on a 40 C day, and you need to take stock on how it'll land. It would have been nice to land on just plain regular grass....not some tilled farm situation.
If you live in Germany, and OWN your property.....you are settling into the new scheme of things....a major renovation has been implemented.
What I can generally say....it's a bit bureaucratic in nature, and requires some data impute into the system.
FYI, there are around 36-million private properties in Germany....some owned by one single person....some units (houses or apartments) owned by one single person.
A 'portal' has been created....where you build an account, and the data is transferred to the state government....where they will assess your new property value, and property tax.
My wife (German in nature) spent around six hours in the chaos of building this account.....only to be told (over and over).....you put the wrong data into the wrong fields. At some point, she finally realized she gave them too much data, and blanked-out five or six fields....then the system approved her account.
Her tax? Presently unknown. In a normal year.....before all this change, it would have been around 600 Euro for what is a urbanized property in Wiesbaden, with three apartments in the building. I asked her how it will escalate, and she's 'willing' to accept a 10-percent rise....meaning up to around 700 Euro a year max. Beyond that.....she'll get a bit hostile.
All this extra and new data....not required before? That's the whole little 'twist' to this story. They made up a general number to the value they assigned to it, and that was the basis of the property value.
Now? Well....they added parking spots provided by you (the owner/landlord). They also want general ground value.
After viewing this portal effort....I would say that probably 30 to 40 percent of Germans aren't that computer literate, and this may end up requiring some tax account....doing 20 minutes of effort to complete the stupid submission.
For those who aren't into this fast-moving story....Uniper is a Düsseldorf-based energy (natural gas) company.
It is the big player in Germany, for the product.
Basically, as prices were escalating by Gazprom (the Russia company)....Uniper was a step or two behind, and is in heavy debt issues because they didn't act fast enough on raising prices for consumers.
So yesterday, if you follow this....Uniper had a deal arranged with a financial unit.....to provide 2-billion Euro, to cover 'issues'.
Is this enough? Well....no. That's also leading to the stories that the Scholz government is being drawn into conversations, and asked to provide some relief.
How much? This is not clear....but purely over the chatter involved....I'd say it's a minimum of one-billion Euro, and some folks are suggesting around 8-billion is the amount that the government is being drawn into.
A no-interest loan? More or less.....that seems to be the key element of this.
Could the government just say no? They could, and then we'd go to Uniper in some collapse situation.
During the Covid era....the government did come and save a number of companies (Lufthansa for example).
I anticipate some amount of money (exceeding one-billion Euro) will loaned out, and Uniper will be forced to open the books and admit any issues. The bad news? Some people were lucky in the slow approach by Uniper on natural gas pricing....but via taxes and revenue required to save Uniper now.....they will pay a price.
1. How I think the Ukraine-Russia war will end?
Just speculating, but I think via a collapse on logistical efforts and declining conscript manpower....one day (probably toward Feb/Mar of 2023)...some conscripts in mass (maybe a thousand of them) will just stand up and start walking/driving back to the Russian border....to refuse anymore of the fight.
A few will be shot, but the others will shoot back, and some collapse of authority will occur over 48-hour period. Around a dozen commanders will be killed in this period, and Moscow military people won't be able to explain this to Putin.
An effort will be made to kill the objecting conscripts....to only infuriate more conscripts, and at the two week point.....there is a total collapse of the front.
2. Where is this Nord Stream I pump, after being fixed in Canada and returned to Germany?
No one knows.
It's highly secretive, and some rumors say it's heavily guarded.
A target? Well....you get the impression that the Ukrainian folks don't want it to be operational and maybe they'd have people going after it. Pretty weird stuff.
3. A lot of jobs open now?
I sat and reviewed the Frankfurt Flughafen (airport) area. There must be a minimum of 2,000 jobs posted in the past ten days. It ranges from short-order cooks, to winter-personnel (the ones who de-ice planes).
4. Any truth to the rumor that the city of Kassel is paying 75 Euro to each resident as 'energy' money?
True.....everyone (even kids) can get it....if you ask for it. You have to be a resident in the city though.
Fixes everything? NO. Per household, you really needed a thousand Euro minimum (my humble view).
5. Any truth to the rumor of 'pool-bouncers' being hired in the state of Hessen?
Well....true. Journalists are using the term 'security-personnel'. I prefer the term 'pool-bouncer'.
What you have is bad behavior stuff going on....mostly with juveniles and young men. You have events throughout Germany starting up at the pool, and the police get called. So the smart thing is what the hiring of these 'bouncers' to remove the bad-boys ahead of time.
People shocked by the bad behavior? I'd say after two years of Covid.....people are generally acting 'normal', and it's a very small group of bad boys.
6. What's with the search for the replacement for Boris Johnson, Brit PM?
Well....whoever gets the nod....probably will be gone in less than two years. If you watch via BBC, Sky and 'other' news services.....no one is that thrilled over the choices.
Quietly right now, we are in the midst of a German census. If approached or if you get a form....by law (threat of a fine)....you have to respond.
It got brought up yesterday that the census people are having a problem. I read through the Focus piece and would best describe the issue this way. There is a goal of contact with 30-million Germans....gathering up data. X-amount of people will be personally visited by interview 'experts' (government says 100,000 of them).
To carry out this face-to-face interview....a Tab is being used to record data....with a software program that they 'bought'.
The software program? It was designed for this effort, and the company (to be left anonymous).....said 'yeah, sure....we tested it and it works'. Well....it doesn't work, and it's got bugs in the operation.
If you look over the record so far.....they should be around 66-percent through the collection. They aren't exactly giving indicators of this achievement, and it makes you wonder if an extra month (or two) will be required.
What happens at the end? This is now openly discussed, and there's some feeling that the facts will not make sense or will be distorted. Trust in the census? It'll take a big step down. I won't say the word 'worthless'.....but you won't be able to make any governmental decisions if the public doesn't trust the data.
Years ago....I was brought in to be a tester for some software package. There were around eight key functions to have as a goal. Seven of them were no issue. The key problem was connecting to a database. You'd query something, and it'd indicate no record existed.....yet we knew a record would fit the query and should show. The software, in my humble opinion....was worthless if the query business didn't function.
I see the same effort here.....testing was probably minimal.
How this will end? I would suggest that the German census will just halt.....a delay of six months will occur as they try to assemble the data via plain spreadsheets, and politicians try to avoid using the data because it's so corrupted. In the end, they will cite that they have data over three or four million Germans that they trust, and that will be the basic (bottom line) of this entire effort. That data? Mostly all collected on paper....not by computers. That's my prediction.
There's some news and social media chatter going on in Germany today.....over two unique woes (to some people).
There is a belief that we are about to see the anti-nuke 'pace'....reverse, and the three nuke plants which were supposed to close at the end of 2022....will be given a permission slip to stay open (perhaps with three other plants which were already closed).
For the Green Party leadership....it's going to be a bitter pill to swallow, and I suspect 10-percent of the voters will step away in anger/frustration.
The length of this open deal? No one says a time in this situation, but my humble view is that a 10-year range is probably possible.
The second thing? The CDU-CSU folks are willing to discuss a speed limit for autobahns.....temporary of course. Again, no one says the amount of time for this....it might be two years.....it might be five years.
The new limit if this occurs for the autobahns? 130 kph (81 mph).
Will either of these two things change outcomes?
On the three nuke plants? They supply 6-percent of the national grid. If the other three are brought back on line? That's 12-percent.
The autobahn speed limit? I just don't buy into the idea that a majority of folks are traveling at speeds higher than 130 kph. I think it's fewer than 30-percent (myself in the group) that routinely travel higher than 130 kph.
1. Not exactly public news, but I heard via a German who knows the Frankfurt Airport situation....baggage chaos has sit a major peak.
Somewhere in the amount of 20,000 bags are sitting there....failing to make it to the planes in time. Out of this number.....around 8,000 bags are label-less (meaning no tag and requires research to find the rightful owner).
Supposed to be trucks to pick these up and haul them to Munich....where some research group will try some new attempt to deliver the bags. Same thing repeating at other airports (Berlin, Hamburg, etc).....with bags destined to this central facility in Munich.
Just looking at the description....you could go to Turkey and spend two weeks without any clothing much....return home, and a month later get a call that they found your bag.
Yeah, it's going to be a lot of angry Germans over their holiday chaos, with no clothing for the vacation.
2. Nancy Faeser, Minister of Interior, spoke at an interview with BR (Bavaria public TV)....on chaos she expects this winter.
What she says.....a lot of right-wing individuals will be protesting and causing trouble because of escalating energy prices. Populists and extremists....she says....are going to be in the mix.
I thought about this and readily agree.....left-wing radicals would never complain about heating costs. It's the whining right-wingers who'd cause up trouble. //sarcasm off//
Lets just be honest....once your heating bill is tripled-up over last year's bill and you don't have the money to cover the bill....do you really expect the general public to be that understanding?
3. The Anne Will Show (public forum) from Sunday night? Topic was fear of natural gas not being there for the winter period. You can view it here.
I lasted through about half of the show. It was a dead-end topic, without much information.
If you were a German and watched the whole thing.....you probably are now intensely worried, and not counting on politicians figuring out solutions.
4. Some intense discussion started up over the weekend with German soccer. Question came up.....would the league and players accept body-cam situations....live shots?
I personally don't care and doubt if it really adds value to the game.
This got brought up today via Focus, and it ought to be something you ponder about.
In general....once you build a wind generator at the factory.....there's roughly 12 to 36 months of planning effort....to go from the factory to the set-up site.
Sixty to eighty 'permissions/approvals' are then in the mix....moving each kilometer, and entering/exiting each village. If you have to move a powerline, take down a stop-sign, or trim a tree....you need permission by the local authority.
This is coordinated through the city, state, and federal authority.
Just one single entry into a town....might involve 200 pages of describing over what you plan on.
Cost-factor? Oddly, they leave that out of the story. I would make a humble guess....just one single wind generator probably has a cost in planning and approval of five-million Euro. But here's the thing.....eventually that generator reaches full life (around 30 years), and it's then taken down. The same paperwork is required to move it. I would also assume that the burial site.....for forty-odd generators....probably also has paperwork processes and permissions.
Over the past two weeks, I've noticed a lot of social media chatter about summer heat. This approaching week, in central Germany....it's supposed to get back up to the 37-to-39 degree temperature (98 to 102 F).
The amusing thing....journalists and some scientists want to hype this, and they ask in public how humans being can possibly survive this (over dramatizing to the extreme).
There are five basic things that a typical German would do:
1. Stay hydrated (with water, not beer/wine).
2. Keep the shutters/curtains drawn to your apartment in the daytime.
3. Use a fan....particularly at night.
4. Limit your time in direct contact with the sun (particularly true in the mid-day hours). Stay in the shade whenever possible.
5. Dress in appropriate clothing for the heat.
Useless things? I heard two stupid things in the past week. One.....put your sheets in a refrigerator/freezer an hour before bedtime. This provides probably six minutes of cool feeling as you start to fall asleep. After the six minutes? It doesn't help. Second, eat salads only for dinner/evening meal. The idea is to eat cool foods, and avoid anything that was cooked/heated. This might work for a day or two.....but most people won't go for a six consecutive day heat-wave, and live off salads like that.
How German heat waves go? A front comes from two areas.....either from the south bringing in high temperatures, or from the Icelandic region with moderate temperatures. Fronts move in....fronts get moved out.
The worst I've seen? 2003....a front lingered over Germany for about four weeks, and every single day was 35 C to 38 C. Climate change was discussed hour by hour on public TV. Then one day.....a new front finally pushed out the heat wave, and we went to 25 C in a matter of twenty-four hours.
The average heat wave? If you pay attention to the weather business....you tend to get a couple of days of 23-to-29 C moderate weather, then a couple of days of 30 C to 38 C. The negative to this is that your concrete building/house....absorbs the heat, and it takes usually two days for a house to 'lose' the heat it trapped.
A beer-garden becoming a retreat? I would suggest that if you have a decent pub in the neighborhood, with shade....then leave the hot house after your come home from work, and spend two hours sipping through a beer or two.
None of this is rocket science.
Since I brought up the Layla song 'controversy' yesterday....I've noticed a number of news reports...with party-fans and DJs doing push-back against the woke-crowd.
Focus brought up the fest in Dusseldorf this weekend. DJ's were banned by the fest organizers from playing the 'sexist' song....so the fans started playing the song themselves.
Where this is going? I would imagine a public forum show (God forbid the topic here)....will pick up on Layla, and try to find five guests to discuss the matter. At least one or two of the guests will have to be 'woke' for this to come across to the audience.
Kind of a 'war' going on with a fairly big segment of society opposing the woke-position? I would suggest that.
Between the Turkish rap scene, the techno crowd, and summer-song people....it's a pretty wide front on sexist songs, and they aren't going to be pushed down by the woke folks.
I've spoken to this topic somewhat over the past month....as vacation-minded Germans take off.....with their bags laying there on the ground at the airport. Because of limited bag-handling personnel, Covid affecting airport employees, and just plain chaos....there's a problem brewing.
I noticed Focus brought this up and dumped more facts on the table.
It's reached a stage where the bags just aren't moving that well from any German airport. Adding to the chaos....the airports don't have ample storage for bags to just sit. So nationally, a strategy has been agreed upon.....if the bag is in 'limbo'....it goes to the Munich Airport. Apparently, they have some hangar or storage area, and have volunteered to accept the bags. From there....bag by bag will be sorted, and airlines will have the responsibility to eventually get the bag to the passenger....somewhere.
If you were a passenger and the bag just didn't show up? The EU standard is the airline owes you a max of 1,400 Euro. You are supposed to fill out the form, hinting the value.
I sat and pondered over this. Before Covid, I was fairly active on the travel business, and my wife got the idea to get a premium suitcase or two....the Rimowa type. Enhanced steel and the type of case that could last through 500 trips easily. The three cases bought? Easily over 2,400 Euro.
So if I were traveling and they lost the three cases? Most of the 4,200 Euro payback wouldn't even start to pay contents....after you consider the loss of the suitcases themselves.
How frustrating are passengers getting? On a scale of one to ten.....I'd say that these folks arriving at some beach resort in Thailand are at a ten....being told by day three....the case is lost...their whole trip is ruined because of the lack of clothing.
Adding to all of these bag issues....Lufthansa on Friday ordered the cancellation of 2,000 flights over the next month (up to the end of August)....admitting they can't handle the passenger load or the bag stress.
If you had a trip booked, with the hotel done by yourself....in simple terms....you are screwed for the summer vacation.
My humble advice....as much as everybody is hyped up to travel after two years of Covid....it'd be wise to find some regional location (Czech, Denmark, or Poland), and just drive your car, or ride the train over. If flying? Load up the cheapest bag you can find with old clothing, and just hope they lose it.....giving your 1,400 Euro for your 'loss'.
At the end of 2022....unless something dramatic happens....the remaining three nuke plants will close. Presently, with what they generate....it's about six-percent of the total grid.
Because of the oil/coal issue with the Russians....the German coalition has been dragged back into discussing further operations.
The three plants? What they say is that they have enough fuel rods to operate into one quarter of 2023. They didn't see a reason to pre-plan or buy more.
What they want....is some document by the government to say....yes, go buy more, and you can operate for x-number of months or years.
The rod people (US company)? They say normally....it'd take 15 months to handle a regular purchase. However, in recent days.....they agree....an expedite situation could occur, and be done in six months...IF you ask for it. I won't say if there's a fee attached to this (I would imagine something in cost is involved).
Adding to this.....the general talk is that three nuke plants already turned OFF....are still in a position to be turned on....meaning you could have six on and producing power.
Why any of this matters?
Well....several plants are using natural gas to provide power....so if you could remove them from the discussion.....you'd have more natural gas for home-owners and business operations.
So all of this....goes to a government decision? Yes, and frankly....the Green Party is stuck in the middle of this. Adding to the burden....the stupid EU went and made both nuke power and coal power.....'clean' energy.
What I think will happen? The Greens will wait until November, and then rationalize that it makes sense to run nuke plants. They will issue an order, and then the purchase of more rods to occur....arriving just as the first quarter of 2023 ends....with the new rods suddenly arriving a couple of days before the drop-dead date.
Yes, I also think the other three off-plants will be brought on-line by the first quarter ending....as well.
All of this to be a dramatic month of criticism over the Green Party decision? Yeah, more or less.
And all of this coming back to Putin's doorstep? Yeah, that's the funny thing about this whole discussion.
Cost impact upon the public for all this BS? Let's just not talk about that. Let the German weep on your shoulder and offer him a beer or two....to comfort his woes.
Note: I didn't bring fracking up....but it's on the list of discussion topics by the coalition government as well. Oh, it's hated by the Green Party....just as much as nuke power.
1. I noticed that the FDP has come up and hyped the idea that for this winter....to somehow save on heating at the office (because of the natural gas woes)....they'd endorse more home-office efforts. The more you think over this....the less likely it has any real sense over it. But on paper, it sounds good.
2. 21 July is the last day of maintenance on Nord Stream I natural gas flow from Russia to Germany. The pipe ought to be turned back on....by the conclusion of the day. Odds of this happening? No one can really say.
If it's not turned on? Go expect a number of German politicians to get freaked-out and start dishing some harsh reality for the winter.
If it goes on? I'd suggest a lot of worry will disappear overnight.
3. I noticed via WELT this morning....an article by Frank Stocker. My best description? It's a piece looking at China, it's banking problems currently, and the odds of a 'Lehman Brothers' chaos to erupt.
He throws in the statistical data.....the trend business, and predicts that a serious economic fall for Chinese banks is about to occur. If you can find the Saturday Welt....it's worth a read. It probably will scare a few folks.
Doesn't surprise me over Icelandic usage.
Begs a lot of questions.....but the chatter will just go in a circle.
So I noticed this story in the AM today....from SWR.
The problem? The stripes just appeared one morning.
Cops got called (later). They came out and said....yeah, it's fake.
Town officials (Ebenweiler).....called the prosecutor, and there's charges for someone...if they figure out who did it.
Cost to remove the stripes? 1,500 Euro.
How long were the stripes there before someone noticed, and the cops arrived? Well....thats the funny thing. No one wants to admit anything about when they first noticed it. Might have been a week....maybe longer.
The elaborate nature of this? That's what gets me. You had to do this at night.....probably after midnight. The two signs? Yeah, you had to do some planning and acquisition to put them into place as well. All of this....the professional paint job, the signs....had to be at least four guys, and a hour of time.
Probably four German guys from the local pub, who wanted to have some legend story to their lives.
Well....a song.
Every year....some German song writers sit down and write 'summer-hits'....which are recorded in the spring, and as Germans rush off to beach vacations (in Turkey, Spain, Italy, etc).....these songs get played at local bars, discos and clubs.
The tunes stick in some way, and get dragged back to Germany. So from June to October....these are trending big in Germany.
So....this guy from Limburg (my region)....Ikke Hipgold wrote this one song called Layla. The text? Mostly leading to a woman who is young, hot, horney, etc.
In simple terms....woke has wandered into this situation and deemed the song too sexist to be heard in public or via the radio. Even the German AG is involved.
Various fests in Germany have banned the song....while the crowd might be singing it....it can't be played via the DJs.
So, here's the thing....Germans have private/public parties, and they have music in the mix.....and Layla....has arrived at a legend status....to be a party song.
Personally, I can probably think of twenty-odd songs from the past fifty years...which would be deemed sexist (Mama's Got A Squeeze Box by The Who, Do Me Baby by Prince, and Do Me by Kim Petras are good examples).
Wokism arriving? Yes, and this Layla business is just the beginning.
FYI: the term 'poof-mama' comes up in the song as well. I had to ask my wife (German in nature) this AM to define it....since it's not a term I've heard. Well......a 'P-M' is a bordello-gal (whore-house resident). A bit funny how a P-M gets dragged into a woke argument.
So in the UK....they've put around 10k of these street defibrillators up.
You'd have a heart-attack, and Monty (with friends) would drag you a thousand feet to one....and shock you back to life.
I looked at this....being a former safety guru while in the Air Force, and kinda wondered....would you want to do this in the normal misty-rain environment that you have in the UK?
Or just dragging some guy down through two or three blocks....would that be the smart thing to do?
It was brought up late yesterday....the CDU/CSU folks have openly said they have no problem in establishing a speed limit on autobahns (130 kph is the often discussed limit).
Presently, within the SPD-Green-FDP coalition.....the discussion is going nowhere because of the FDP folks.
So what the CDU/CSU leadership said.....if it came to a vote in the Bundestag and the wording said a limit (no one has said the limit number, but my guess is 6 to 9 months)....then they'd vote with the SPD-Greens, and bring in the limit.
How I think the public perceives this?
Well....130 kph is really 80 mph, and it's still a pretty hefty 'burn-rate' on fuel. It's not like something big is going to occur.
If you asked me about the normal speed Germans drive presently? I would suggest that 25-percent drive around 100 kph, with 50-percent driving at 130 kph, and the remainder who will occasionally drive more than 130 kph. I'm not that sure that you will see big or massive fuel savings.
However, this is this other chatter going on....about state highways, where the speed limit is presently 100 kph. The Greens would like to see that drop in the same fashion as the autobahn limits. Yes, down to 90 kph. That might not be as accepting as people think.
All of this to happen after the summer vacation period? It looks that way....I'd say it'll come up in late August, and be passed in two weeks....with little said via public TV news.
The end date (I believe) likely to be in May 2023.....with some dramatic effort to extend it another six to nine months.
Focus wrote up a five-star piece on the Russia-Ukraine business, and the affect of sanctions. I'd strongly recommend a read of it.....here.
There are three things I'll point out.
1. No one is arguing against the 'shrinking' of Russia's economy for 2022.....the analyst in this case said it'd shrink by 10-percent. I tend to think it'll be closer to 20 percent by the end of the year.
2. The Ruble looking great? Yes. Right now, a dollar buys 57 Rubles....best deal for Russians in a long time (if you have dollars to exchange). Yes, I do agree....there's a lot of fake stuff going on to make this happen.
3. Unemployment (May numbers) are said to be 3.9-percent. Personally, I think the numbers are bogus.
If you look at the whole discussion brought up by Focus....there's no doubt that the working-class Russian is affected, and suffering to some degree. It's not bad enough to collapse society, but it's enough that you notice things going wrong.
Well, it depends on three elements:
1. How severe the winter is.
I would normally classify winters as artic-like, medium and moderate. This past winter was pretty moderate except for about ten days (at least in central Germany). On the artic-like? I would use the 1978 winter as an example, and suggest that one year out of every ten is pretty bad....but one year out of every 25....is like the 1978 period of ice and snow.
2. The logical mindset of Putin and if he goes for natural gas flowing....being restricted to some degree....or cutting it off entirely.
3. The cost factor.
This is a case where people realize the cost is three times what it was in 2019, and cut the flow themselves.....keeping the indoor temperature closer to 15 C (59 F).
So you could evaluate all three, and get a super great outcome..
You could also evaluate all three, and get the worst possible outcome.
The possibility of civil unrest? I would go and suggest under the extremely bad outcome....this would be a frustrating period for people to settle back and 'take-it'.
If I were predicting this? I'd say it's somewhere in the middle.
