Wednesday, July 6, 2022

Odds of the Dutch Government Failing?

 The last election was held on 17 March 2021, and the next election would be March 2025. 

How was the win in March?

The winning party (VVD) won with 22-percent of the vote.  Yeah....pretty low and crappy.

The number two party (D66)? They had 15-percent.  Sitting in third place was the PVV folks (far right) with 11-percent.

So when they did the numbers.....there were 16 parties to get  seats in the Dutch 'House'.  

The partnership that led to the forming of the government?  Four parties....which led to a long list of agreements to bind them into one.

Presently with the trouble brewing with the farming community, and riots....I'd suggest that one of the four parties (probably either CDA or CU, the lesser of the four) will freak out and suggest they can't handle the public discontent. 

CU?  Minor party....holding five seats presently.  They are a blend of different political statements.

CDA?  Center-right.....holding 19 seats.  

A shaky proposition to have a failed government and so much anger/frustration?  Here's the thing....the VVD guys who had the majority from the 2021 election....could end up losing half their supporters in this effort, and then you'd get an even weaker government with the majority party probably having no more than 25-percent of national vote.  

A lot of anti-EU feelings brewing?  Well....yeah, there's that problem as well.  The next EU election?  May 2025.  Odds of this becoming a fairly frustrating election with parties having to actually campaign and promise not to screw with various groups?  Pretty good chance.

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