Tuesday, July 11, 2017

The 44-Percent Story

Focus wrote up a piece today, which centered on polling data (by RTL), and spoke to this interesting aspect of 2017 and German politics.  Roughly 44-percent of the general public don't think ANY of the political parties at work (from right to center, onto the far-left)....can solve of the problems at hand.

Over the past three years, I've essayed a number of pieces which tend to point out the general public disregard for the news media and the political parties that exist.  To some minor degree, the AfD offered some opposition to the immigration and migrant problem, but beyond that....no one sees some great sense of knowledge or capability within the somewhat new 'kid' on the block (the AfD).

The Merkel-solution or 'fix'?  Most of what people have viewed over the past five years is a CDU list of topics and positions which makes them more or less identical to the SPD.  You could ask Germans over the age of sixty and most would say that they don't really recognize the CDU Party of today.....that it's taken on most of the platforms of the SPD or Green Party of the past twenty years.  But the same folks would say that the economical situation is mostly good (although citing lack of pay raises and affordable housing as a permanent problem now).

What does the 44-percent situation represent?  It suggests that a large number of German society are marginally happy and would like some different kind of leadership.....which none of the six significant parties in Germany can provide.

The next four years.....assuming that Merkel and the CDU wins?  More of the same.  There might be some type of partnership that develops in a new coalition (maybe just the CDU/CSU and FDP).  But beyond that.....I would expect the 44-percent group to grow by three or four percent more by 2021.

In a way, there is this doorway opening for a Macron-like situation in Germany....where a guy could emerge and create his own party and take on the disgruntled and frustrated Germans.  Most of the news media and intellectual class would say it's practically impossible to have a Macron-situation develop.  I used to think along those lines, but Macron's appeal and speeches changed the French normal rules of politics.  Using social media, you could bypass the German political forums and TV-controlled political games.

What you should take home from all of this is that this 44-percent group will go to the polls and vote in September....just say something, but in their heart, this isn't much of a vote to cast.  Merkel wins, but it's a marginal type of enthusiasm with the public.

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