Sunday, July 16, 2017

The 'Nuke-Option' Story

In the last couple of days, if you follow the news around of the bigger stories is that Italy is talking about a 'nuke-option' in dealing with the EU and migrants.

For months, since the EU's deal with Turkey....the smuggling route from Turkey to Greece and on up to Bavaria....dissolved, the smuggling have been viewing other options of human trafficking.  So, route 'B' is from Libya.  You barter or pay for someone to get you from your affect country (maybe in Africa....maybe from Afghanistan) to Libya....then you pay for someone to take you out in a boat and dump you into a raft at some pre-planned location.  Magically, within a couple of hours....some charity-run rescue ship comes along and alerts other vessels, and they get 'rescued' (meaning taken off the marginal raft, and taken to some Greek isle.

Oddly, by the words of the Dublin Agreement....the normal procedure would be that the EU member state (meaning Italy) would then put paperwork in front of the rescued individual and process them for their country for immigration.  Italy hasn't really done that.

For a long while (coming up to twelve to eighteen months)....Italy has been counting on the EU to work up a forceful method of getting the 28 members to take the incoming crowd.  There are roughly six members who are fairly direct....they won't accept this type of method, or migrants.  The EU has said that it might 'punish' the ones that refuse.

Naturally, no one has asked the migrants staying in Italy about this and I suspect if you did mention this 'game'....most would say they have no interest in 20-odd EU member states for immigration.  They will suggest that only the UK, France, Sweden, or Germany fit their dream-land.

So, this 'nuke-option' came up.  The story goes....that Italy would just issue out temporary EU-entry documents.  If you read the fine-print....typically, these require passports.  If there are 200,000 of these people (as the journalists suggest) would surprise me if you find more than 10-percent with valid passports.  Course, Italy might bypass that rule and just hand out the EU-entry documents.  The next part of the story is that the migrants would be encouraged to head north.  I'm guessing Italy would hand each a hundred Euro and some rail-ticket....just to get rid of them.  Then the person would go and enter some other European country and try to apply for residency...using the Dublin-rule.

The Dublin-rule says that where ever you where you must apply for residency.  Everyone has been standing there and allowing Italy to land these migrants, but not force them to utilize the Dublin-rule.  In essence, they've made a joke out of the Dublin-Agreement.

What happens if the mass (200,000) headed north? You have to figure at least half will land in Germany.  Right now.....the election season is coming up (mid-September).  It'd be a pretty bad time to start the nuke-option.....for Chancellor Merkel.  If they waited until late September and carried this out....I doubt if Merkel would be damaged much, but it would upset the general public to figure out this whole game.

Then the second part of this whole story is that Italy would continue to land migrants, and turn them loose with this EU-entry document.  Most journalists (particularly German types)....wouldn't really discuss this part of the game.

A screwed up deal?  You have a dozen-odd characters playing out this whole migrant-asylum-immigration game, with different agendas and varying methods of fact-hiding from the public.  This is the more difficult part of the story.  Every migrant that makes it into Europe....becomes some legend in his village and provides encouragement that a 'route' exists and you could leave your homeland in a fairly easy fashion.

Stopping the 'nuke-option'?  The EU would have to get tough with Italy, and I doubt that they have that kind of enforcement tool existing.  Forcing countries to accept the migrants?  You'd just trigger more anger in the general public....with people asking where the end of the road is with migration (something that the EU can't admit in public).

Reaction?  It wouldn't surprise me if Switzerland, France and Austria all put up enhanced security at the border and really start to go over those trying to enter....forcing some back into Italy.

Bottom line?  The poker-game of immigration simply added more seats to the table and more players, if you asked me.

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