Thursday, July 20, 2017

Wide Play on German Polling

One of the odd factors of the 2017 German national election is the wide placement of the polls.

Some polls actually lower the CDU expectation down to around 36-percent....instead of the 40-percent rate of others.

Some polls rate the SPD 25-percent....instead of the typical 22-percent.

One poll puts the AfD Party (anti-immigration) at 10 percent, instead of the 7-percent discussed on public TV news.

How big of a deal is this placement issue?  If the CDU wins with only gets to a fairly difficult situation of forming a coalition (the FDP partnership won't be enough).  They'd have to evaluate using the Green Party (who says they won't partner up at the national level with Merkel)....or use their odd relationship with the SPD once again.

Even with the 40-percent win by the CDU.....some suggest that the FDP would be hard-pressed to get 10-percent of the earn the coalition-partner situation.

All of this creates intrigue and chaos in September as the election results are announced.  My best guess is that the CDU and SPD will have to partner up once again, and the next four years will be a very similar period as the past four years.

So, does all of this indicate that Chancellor Merkel is 'in-solid' with the general public?  Well....the truth is that there just anyone from the other parties, or within the CDU itself....who has the appeal that the public is looking for.  It really says a lot about politics in Germany.....that the public would support a change.....but only if it were for the better.  Schulz doesn't fit the level required, and you can say mostly the same for the other political parties.

What happens in 2021 when Merkel retires?  That's a good question, and no one knows the answer.

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