Wednesday, July 26, 2017

The Rule of Law

The European Court of Justice (ECJ) came out late yesterday and shocked a lot of people.  They basically confirmed that the Dublin Convention (the agreement among EU members that where ever a migrant/immigrant/asylum seeker lands in (within Europe)....that is the country that they must settle upon, and not 'shop' to find the best deal and crossing borders to reach that state.

The migrants sitting in Italy that were rescued?  The 200,000.  They now belong to Italy unless the EU can cook up another deal, with the 28 member of the EU agreeing.

For the Chancellor Merkel crowd, who are pro-migrant and wanted an open-door policy?  Well....they've been pushed back.  The rule of law will apply.

What happens now?  My guess is Chancellor Merkel (after the election) will put on the EU hat, and try to get France's Macron to push through some EU rule on quotas and distribution of migrants.  They will find push-back from at least three or four members, and major questions over the future from another dozen countries.

The real issue for them now is that as you view Africa and the migrant development....potentially, there could be 100-million people seeking to transit to the EU.  If they were successful in getting a rule-change...that only helps for 2017.  By the summer of 2018, you'd likely see half-a-million migrants in Libya attempting the boat-rescue deal in the Med, and you'd have to distribute them.  And by the summer of 2019....perhaps a million or more migrants playing out the boat-rescue deal.  For the smuggling crowd, there's hundreds of millions to be the amusing EU process.

In some ways, the court decision really turned up the pressure on the migrant topic.  A decision, whether good or bad, will have to be developed over the next couple of months, and it likely will be chaotic.

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