Thursday, July 7, 2022

The Top 'Dog' of Dutch Politics

Since the Netherlands is big in the news lately....I went reading up on the political slant.   

Driving party in the Dutch coalition?  The People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD).

You'd hear the journalists describe it as a conservative-liberal political party (sort of a 50-50 mix).

My description?  More or less....center-center, with some emphasis on commerce and economic liberalism.

It's been around since the end of WW II.

If you look around at the past 15 years.....it's been a 50-50 mix of conservatives and liberals.....trying to forge a centralist theme.  

They've been the top 'dog' of politics for most of the past thirty years with two brief periods as 'out'.  

So what is driving the current anger/frustration in the country?  Mostly a handed-down EU mandate, and the coalition (four parties) saying that a vast change will occur with farmers between now and 2030.  

No one in the government has reviewed how farming will exist, or how to rebrand the nation to be lesser on agricultural production.  Nor have they determined what the tax revenue situation will be once you shut down x-amount of farms. In simple terms....it's like a bunch of juveniles were set to running the government.

The likely scenario here?  By the end of August....I think the government will fall (one of the four coalition members will quit).  It might even happen before the end of July.  I'll also predict that the police will speed up the process by using guns....shooting several farmers, and triggering a national crisis where 'defund-the-police' arrives in the Netherlands.

Next election?  Probably late-Sep to late-Oct, with the VVD Party getting fewer than 1.3-million votes.  I also think the farmers will create a party out of thin air, and likely get in the range of 1-million votes.  This will be an election that forms an  even weaker coalition than exists today.  But they will toss the EU mandate, and trigger more anti-EU sentiment around the country.  

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