I looked at polling data (mid-July)....from INSA.
Presently, AfD will probably take in the 24-percent range and technically win.
HOWEVER, since no one will form a coalition with them....it's really the 2nd place winner (likely to be the SPD Party) that gets the nod to form a coalition state gov't.
SPD numbers? Presently....19-percent.
In 3rd place....CDU Party with 18-percent.
At 17-percent....is the newly formed BSW Party.
The Greens and Linke Party.....both appear to be in the 5-to-6 percent range.
So my humble guess....the SPD forms a state coalition here....probably with BSW and the Greens.
The one odd thing? The present polling and the EU election results from early June....don't match up well. From that episode....the SPD had only 13-percent, and the AfD folks had near 27-percent.
I'm not saying the EU election results will repeat....just that polling is a bit different two months later.
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