Saturday, August 10, 2024

How The Sachsen State Election Appears (1 Sep 2024)

 Well....polling taken in early August shows the CDU Party likely winning with 34-percent of the vote.

Doe this match up with the EU election from June?  No....they had 22-percent in that election.  

If the poll holds?  AfD will be near 30-percent (2nd place).

In 3rd place?  BSW with 11-percent.

Linke, SPD and Greens are all in the five-percent range mostly.

If you do the coalition situation....the CDU would have to partner up with BSW, and likely the SPD....to get a coalition built.

In the event that the AfD gets near 32-percent (like they did in the EU election)?  Well....there's no one to partner with them, and a very weak CDU....probably with 25-percent...would have to partner with the BSW, and at least two of the lesser parties (SPD and Greens likely).  

I'll just say it...in a partnership build 'contest'....if you get into a 4-group situation....it usually doesn't get much appreciation by the public over 'promises' made.  

All of this in the end leaving a heavy burden for the fed election in the fall of 2025?  More or less...both the CDU/CSU group and the SPD party....are in a weakened state.  Combined....the group won't get past 45-percent and it represents a difficult coalition-building process.  

And I'll say that BSW figures into fed election as an eventual partner of 'someone'. 

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