1. The odds of a no-confidence vote in the UK, and another snap-election?
Ten days ago...I would have said ZERO chance. At the pace of things in the past week, I'd say a no-confidence vote will occur before we get to 2025. Just a tremendous lack of confidence in the Labour gov't. And no, I'm not saying that the conservative folks (the Tories) have any better view on how to run things.
I would suspect another face will appear for the Labour Party by January 2025, and they will attempt to get by for all of 2025....before admitting another snap-election is the only way to go.
2. This Iran-Israel 'war' to start this weekend?
Yeah, I'll just predict....around fifty to one-hundred medium-range missiles to be fired...with 95-percent failing to reach their target.
Nukes being demonstrated? If any of the missiles are such....it changes the dynamics and likely means a massive retaliatory mess to clean up later.
NATO then drawn into this? That's the odd view I have.
3. I think elements of the Green Party and SPD Party in Germany....will end up halting the US deployment of cruise missiles into Germany (scheduled for 2025).
I'll also suggest that this break-up within the SPD Party....will influence the outcome of the 2025 fed-election in Germany. I could see half the base of the SPD....walking to the VOLT folks or BSW Party.
1 comment:
On point 1. It's still a zero chance. I'll bet you a spaghetti Eis that failing death or diagnosis of a severe illness, Sir Keir Starmer will lead Labor to a second election victory in 4 years from now.
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