To put the Kursk situation into some prospective....Kursk, Russia lies about 30 to 40 km's from the Ukraine border. It's one single paved road...from the border to Kursk.
What most military analysts say? Generally, three things. This Ukraine offensive force wasn't that big of a group. That the Russians didn't have that many troops protecting the area around the Kursk-Ukraine border. And that the Russian immediate reaction...was to retreat and wait for reinforcements to arrive (whether it took a day or two....or a week).
Two key factors now coming out? Well...lot of Russians in Kursk are now fearful, and in some form of evacuation (no idea where they'd go but just elsewhere). Then there's this odd perception....where did this 6-week Putin invasion plan go wrong in 2022?
As for why the Ukrainians are on this aggressive strategy? I would suggest that they've read the Trump 'notes' and realize that funding and help will collapse in January. So you might as well use what assets you have now....to create a weakened situation or Putin's folks.
If they were to advance past Kursk? The next 'big' town up the road (heading north, 50 km) is Oryol. Taking into consideration the entire district....it's around 700,000 in population.
If you took a unremarkable Ukrainian group of 40 vehicles and 2,000 men....you'd end up with 200,000 locals freaked out and trying to exit the town in a matter of an hour or two.
The Russians having mobility in their favor and 'saving' the day? Well....yeah, that would have been the case in 2022. I am not that sure such mobility exists today, or that you could do much....other than send a few fighters to bomb the approaching force...hoping they have no Surface-to-Air missiles.
Belarus getting a phone-call to aid? Yeah, I could see Putin asking for help and some type of force could be launched to also 'invade' Russia....to save it from the other invaders.
This little invasion continuing on? I'd ask here where the 'end-point' is, and how much fuel/reserves that the Ukrainians have planned for this operation. If the invasion group still exists in seven days? That's the other factor....you'd think that Putin would make this priority number one....to take them out of action.
2 comments:
40 vehicles and 2,000 men go in, none come out. The end
Yeah, a one-way mission....unless they have a time limit and this was just to make a point. I will say this....in the regular war-zone to the SE...this is probably where they will draw support (thus weakening that front). To make the locals happy....you might have to move 20,000 personnel up to Kursk. Maybe that's the gain-plan.
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