Timing is everything....in a war. Sometimes, you have timing to your advantage.....sometimes...timing works against you.
First, as of this morning....Ukraine still occupies a pretty fair amount of the Kursk area. Depending on who is telling the story and arranging the map....I'd say they control a 60 by 60 mile chunk of Russian property. From the border, it was a mere 40-mile convoy trip.
Second, German journalists are entering the region (I assume in some protective way by the Ukraine Army....to tell this story). Their story so far? A lot of dead Russian conscripts laying around.
Whether the term 'lot' is true or not....I can't say. If you asked me on how much training the conscripts had for the situation? I'd guess they had six weeks of 'boot-camp' and maybe two to four weeks of extra training. If you had them with seasoned troops....they might do well, but if you just had 500 conscripts with a dozen officers, and no seasoned people....it's a crappy mess.
Third, whatever reinforcements are in the situation....for Russia, I don't expect them to arrive and stage a offensive for at least another week. Where they draw this 'force' from? Well...obviously from the mass of troops on the eastern front of Ukraine....meaning they lessen their presence there.
Fourth, Belarus in this whole game? I would imagine that Putin wants to put massive pressure on Belarus to react, and stage a 20-mile incursion into the Ukraine. Belarus commanders are sitting there and likely shaking their heads.....as seriously deflated as Russia is....Belarus is probably not that prepared for a offensive situation.
Fifth.....it's a remarkable scene being played out. Putin is a magician who has a very successful 'rabbit-in-the-hat' trick, which has played over and over....to the point now....where he has a 'dead-rabbit' in his hand and the audience isn't that impressed with the act.
Sixth.....if this were the first six months of 'war'....Putin would still have a fair sized inventory of tanks/APCs/artillery....that he could draw upon and stage a quick offensive (meaning three to four weeks to prepare). At this point....the generals will just respond 'sure-we-can-stage-a-offensive' and deliver a dozen tanks to impress everyone.
Seventh and final....if there were ever a point where Putin should launch some massive 200-rocket launch on Kiev....this is it. But the question is....do they still have any real inventory of rockets left to launch?
Footnote: On my threat to Europe status index....one to ten....I'd now have to rate Russia at a '2'...only because of medium-range missiles. Beyond that....it's a zero threat situation.
Added note: Where the Nazis went wrong in WW II for their invasion into Russia....they took a tremendous amount of gain, with marginal logistical support. Rather than slow down and build up a logistical chain.....they were left with a unsustainable 'war'. In Ukraine's case? If they don't go past Kursk....build trenches and keep some type of anti-tank weapon inventory on hand....I could see them holding the Kursk area for a indefinite period. Russian strategy? Well....bomb the hell out of Russian villages/territory.....which tells a remarkable story to the Russian people. I would imagine Putin has already hired some monument designer....to make a 'I-saved-Kursk' statue.
Added note (9:30 AM), Moscow orders an additional 20,000 Russians to leave the Kursk region. I'm assuming these are folks on the north and eastern sides of Kursk. Now, if you asked....how organized is this evacuation? I would guess it's barely 100 Russians engaged in the 'act', and there's no real plan on where to house the new group of 20,000. Odds of another 20-odd thousand by Sunday to evacuate? Yeah, it wouldn't shock me if the order expanded.
Bad confidence measure? Russians have to be watching these developments and asking more questions than normal.
Winter-playing into this this? Well...in about eight weeks....you need to start considering cooler temperatures and how temp-housing for the evac-folks will be handled.
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